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Wuhan's war capabilities exceeded the Beiyang Army's pre-war expectations, which made Li Chun realize that capturing Nanjing and Jiangsu had become a pipe dream. If he did not withdraw to the north as soon as possible, he would probably be trapped in Wuhan. Therefore, he began to consider the issue of retreat.
However, for Beijing and Xuzhou, the safety of Li Chun's troops was no longer a concern, because Wuhan's main target was now Feng Guozhang's troops in Xuzhou. The Second Army, which was originally positioned to provide support from the center, was now facing the crisis of being besieged in Xuzhou. Yuan Shikai suddenly realized that he did not have many reserves left. The Fifth Division stationed in Jinan had to protect the rear of Xuzhou. If the Wuhan Army in Heze captured Jinan, the overall situation north of the Yellow River would completely collapse, and the defense of Hebei would be finished.
Yuan Shikai could only request British and Japanese mediation, which was in effect an ultimatum to them: if they didn't send troops, he would surrender. On the evening of November 16, at the Chinzan-so Hotel in Tokyo, high-ranking army officials held a secret meeting on the China issue.
As a military advisor, Tamura Iyozo bluntly told Katsura Taro and Terauchi Masatake, "The army should admit defeat and stop betting on a losing game. After the defeat of the Beiyang Third Army, the operational situation of the First and Second Armies has been completely disrupted. Now it is not a question of how to salvage the Southern Expedition plan, but how to save the Beiyang forces."
Unless my country is fully mobilized, it cannot interfere with the Southern Army's occupation of Beijing. Preserving the Beiyang Army's territory in southern Manchuria is currently our greatest hope. If we cannot even hold onto southern Manchuria, then the army will have essentially forfeited all the gains it made on the mainland during the Russo-Japanese War, and the mainland policy can be officially declared a failure.
Katsura Taro and Terauchi Masatake were the most active supporters within the army in instigating this Chinese civil war, their aim being to restore the feasibility of the continental policy. The previous attempt to completely annex Korea had instead created a North Korean autonomous region, making the Korean Peninsula the biggest obstacle to implementing the continental policy.
If the navy's southward strategy was aimed at the spheres of influence of the United States, Britain, and France in Southeast Asia, then the army's continental policy faced the dilemma of China and Russia. Japan broke China's absolute dominance in East Asia during the Sino-Japanese War, but it was the Russians who reaped the greatest benefits.
The Russo-Japanese War forced the Japanese to shrink Russia's influence in the Far East, but China's national strength began to recover. The army attempted to completely annex the Korean Peninsula to exert pressure on Manchuria, but was humiliated by the Korean resistance forces supported by China. The army, which had just suffered heavy losses in the Russo-Japanese War, had no choice but to temporarily compromise.
However, for the army, the continental policy is a matter of life and death. If the continental policy fails, it means that the army will be continuously weakened, while the navy, whose southward strategy is gradually taking shape, will gain more and more resources.
Katsura Taro's cabinet formation was an attempt by the army to regain control of national policy. If the mainland policy is to be restored, the people must first see the possibility of its success. If the army cannot even eliminate the North Korean autonomous region supported by China, how can the people support the army to go to war with China?
However, the army weighed the possibility of fighting the North Korean autonomous region and found that occupying the North Korean autonomous region was not impossible, but it would make it difficult for the army to seize Manchuria, because the terrain of the North Korean mountains would completely tie down the unmobilized army forces, thus exhausting the army's strength to advance on Manchuria.
Once this situation takes hold, it will be inevitable that the army will be ousted by the people. Although North Korea is rich in resources, there will be no benefit if they cannot be developed. As long as the anti-Japanese armed forces in North Korea continue to fight in the northern mountains, Japan will not be able to develop the resources of North Korea.
In other words, the army's enormous expenditure of resources resulted in a game of hide-and-seek with the North Koreans in the mountainous regions of northern Korea, without ever gaining any of the wealth of Manchuria. While bypassing northern Korea and attacking Manchuria would be the best strategy to resolve the Korean issue, the army could not convince the people to support a full-scale war similar to the Russo-Japanese War, nor could they guarantee a victory over contemporary China.
In the war against Russia, a formally unified China demonstrated sufficient mobilization capacity, and the land war between China and Russia was no less challenging than the land war between Japan and Russia. Although domestic propaganda downplayed the role of the Chinese army, claiming that the Japanese army diverted the attention of the main Russian forces, thus giving the Chinese army the opportunity to resist the Russians and cut off the Trans-Siberian Railway line.
However, the army staff analyzed in internal meetings that if China and Japan went to war, a unified China would not be able to be defeated by Japan. Although China's organizational capabilities, military training, and weaponry were inferior to Japan's, China's size was too large. Even if only one-tenth of its population and resources were utilized, it would be enough to stop Japan's attack.
According to the most optimistic estimate of the General Staff, the greatest achievement of the army would be the occupation of the Liaodong and Shandong Peninsulas, thereby posing a threat to Beijing. This was also the planned scenario for the Sino-Japanese War. However, China's current political center is multifaceted. In the late Qing Dynasty, attacking Beijing would have forced China to surrender. Now, if the army were to occupy Beijing, it would only allow Wuhan to take over the leadership of China. This means that the army cannot end the battle after capturing Beijing.
For the army to attack Wuhan was an impossible task. The British would not agree to a Japanese invasion of the Yangtze River basin, and even fifty divisions might not be enough for a land attack on Wuhan. The army could only muster 25 divisions at the limit of its current national strength. Therefore, a full-scale war with China was not an option for Japan. If the army were to propose such a plan, it would first be ousted from power by a coalition of other political forces.
The General Staff considered the only feasible continental strategic plan to be to instigate a civil war between North and South China, and then use the opportunity of the Chinese civil war to project army forces into Manchuria, expel the Workers' Party forces from Manchuria, and cut off the logistical support channels for Korean anti-Japanese elements.
Although the plan was approved by former Army Minister Tamura, Tamura still stated that it was only a theoretically feasible plan and did not necessarily mean that it would work in practice. Therefore, the General Staff should develop a backup plan. If the situation of the Chinese Civil War deviated from the General Staff's expectations, the plan should be terminated in time to avoid losing all the army's resources.
Terauchi, however, found Tamura's statement quite absurd. He argued that the army had no other options besides the continental policy, and that the so-called backup plan was essentially abandoning the continental policy, which was tantamount to slow suicide. Therefore, he advocated that there was no need for a backup plan and that everyone should focus on ensuring the success of the current plan.
Terauchi's proposal received support from Katsura Taro, Yamagata, and other core members of the Choshu faction. However, the situation unfolded exactly as Tamura had predicted. Now, Tamura is demanding that Terauchi and Katsura Taro concede defeat to prevent the army from losing all the hard-earned gains on the mainland.
End of this chapter
Chapter 795
Tamura Iyozo's proposal was actually out of public interest. He believed that Katsura Taro's resignation was the best option to minimize losses. However, Lieutenant General Uehara Yusaku followed up by saying, "I cannot agree with what General Tamura said. The army has invested a lot of resources in this China war. If we stop now, how can we explain to our friends who support the army?"
Furthermore, the army's main dealings in China were with the Beiyang Army. If the Beiyang Army collapsed, it would mean that the Wuhan Workers' Party, supported by the navy, would seize control of China. Wouldn't the navy then have to decide all diplomatic issues between Japan and China in the future?
General Katsura's resignation would neither resolve the obstacles to the mainland policy nor ease relations with the new Chinese government. Therefore, I believe General Tamura's proposal was too conservative and could not protect the interests of the army.
Katsura Taro glanced at Uehara, his face expressionless. He knew very well that Lieutenant General Uehara wasn't speaking up for him, but rather trying to prevent him from stepping down peacefully. Uehara was the son-in-law of the late General Nozu Michitsuna and the second-generation leader of the Satsuma faction in the army. Although Oyama Iwao was still alive, he was no longer in charge.
Unlike Oyama Iwao, who maintained close ties with Yamagata, Uehara Yusaku valued the Satsuma faction more than his army identity. Of course, Uehara's Satsuma faction was actually a group of army officers centered around himself, not a genuine attempt to return to the old Satsuma clique. Just as the Satsuma faction within the navy created a new Satsuma clique, abandoning the old Satsuma clique system built on region and lineage, Uehara's Satsuma faction was not about restoring the glory of the old Satsuma clique, but rather an anti-Chōshū army officer group built upon the foundations of the old Satsuma faction.
Uehara Yusaku's stance against the Choshu faction stemmed from the Choshu faction's suppression of him. Yamagata Aritomo had already produced a third-generation leader like Tanaka Giichi, meaning that the army was almost becoming a Choshu faction's hereditary business. How could Uehara possibly tolerate this? Based on his achievements, he should have been the one to lead the army after Katsura Taro and Terauchi Masatake. However, the Choshu faction wanted Tanaka Giichi to take over, meaning they had no intention of relinquishing any power.
The reason why people like Tamura Iyozo, Iguchi Shogo, Matsukawa Toshitane, and Fukushima Yasumasa were able to gain a place in the upper echelons of the army was because of Kodama's advocacy of the expansionism of the Choshu clique. However, after Kodama's death, the Choshu clique once again leaned towards conservatism. As a result, officers in the army who were not from the Choshu region could only join military factions outside the Choshu system, which led to the expansion of the Satsuma faction's power.
Uehara Yusaku felt that his achievements were enough to lead the army, but in terms of factional interests, his subordinates also needed him to fight for the power to lead the army. Therefore, Uehara had to take an anti-Chōshū stance, which brought about a dramatic change from the previous generation of Satsuma generals' vassalage of Chōshū.
Therefore, Katsura Taro was well aware that Lieutenant General Uehara's words did not mean he supported him, but rather that Uehara's resignation alone was insufficient to bear the responsibility for the army's strategic failure. Uehara's intention was to demand that the Choshu faction relinquish leadership of the army.
Originally, Katsura Taro did not object to the suggestion of resignation. After all, Tamura's analysis was correct: the army's strategy of instigating the Chinese civil war could no longer achieve its strategic effect due to the rapid defeat of the Beiyang Army. Continuing to hold on would only lead to greater diplomatic failures for Japan.
But Katsura Taro believed that everything he did was to restore the Army's continental policy. After the plan to annex Korea failed, the Army's continental policy had actually reached a dead end. Without the Korean Peninsula in hand, what continental policy could the Army talk about?
A cross-sea attack on Liaodong and the Shandong Peninsula would require naval assistance, a plan the navy would clearly not accept, as it would turn the navy into a logistical force for the army. Moreover, a full-scale war between Japan and China would be politically inappropriate; the great powers had repeatedly emphasized maintaining China's territorial integrity, which in effect meant that Britain, as the global hegemon, was preventing other powers from annexing China, thus challenging the British order in the Far East.
The Russo-Japanese War broke out not because Japan opposed Russia, but because Britain and the United States opposed Russia's annexation of Manchuria and Mongolia. Japan was merely a tool supported by Britain and the United States. If Japan had revealed its ambition to annex China, it would naturally have faced opposition from the great powers. Katsura Taro was not one of those politically naive low-ranking officers; he naturally understood what Britain and the United States viewed Japan's position in East Asia: a force used to maintain order in East Asia, but one that could not threaten the order established by the great powers in East Asia.
Strictly speaking, Japan's sphere of influence in East Asia should be the Korean Peninsula. Manchuria served as a buffer zone between Japan and the great powers. The great powers were unable to control the region, but they prohibited Japan from turning it into their own sphere of influence.
The reason the British supported Japan in instigating the Chinese civil war was that the balance of power within China had been disrupted. The strength of Wuhan had clearly grown far beyond that of other Chinese forces, led by the Beiyang government. If the situation were left unchecked, Wuhan might lay the foundation for unifying China, which would harm the interests of all countries in China.
The great powers might support Japan's military intervention to help the Beiyang Fleet seize Manchuria and Mongolia, but they would never allow Japan to turn Manchuria and Mongolia into their colonies. This was the balance of power in East Asia established by the great powers.
The rapid defeat of the Beiyang Army signified that the postwar benefits promised by the great powers could not compensate for Japan's full involvement in the Chinese Civil War. This would have been another Russo-Japanese War, but with far less benefit. After all, the Russians were not heartbroken at losing their Far Eastern territories, as those were not their traditional lands. The Chinese, on the other hand, were clearly unwilling to give up their traditional territories.
This means that Japan will not only lose its interests on the mainland outside the Korean Peninsula, but it is also uncertain whether the Korean Peninsula can be preserved after the war, because it is difficult for the war between Japan and China to reach a stalemate.
The reason Russia and Japan were able to compromise was that Russia couldn't continue fighting, and the Japanese leadership also knew they couldn't continue. If China and Japan went to war, China, as the invaded party, would not easily compromise unless the Qing Dynasty was restored to power. On the other hand, if Japan couldn't get any benefits in exchange for peace talks, it would probably face divine retribution from its own people.
Katsura Taro thought that stepping down wasn't the worst outcome, at least it wouldn't make the situation worse. But the primary condition was that the responsibility shouldn't fall on the Choshu faction; it was the responsibility of the entire army. Katsura Taro could accept the army's defeat, but he couldn't accept the Choshu faction's rout. If the army lost, the Choshu faction could start over, but if the Choshu faction lost, it was all over.
Terauchi Masatake, who shared the same view as Katsura Taro, countered Uehara: "The army's assessment of the war in China is not wrong. At least the southward operation plan that we helped the Beiyang Army formulate is not wrong. The problem is the strength of the Beiyang Army. If the Beiyang Army is so easily defeated in field battles, then no matter how much we plan, it will be useless."
The navy's attitude in this national policy action was also quite questionable. For the sake of its own interests, it failed to firmly implement the military's demands, preventing the Beiyang Army from controlling the Shandong Peninsula in a short period. Otherwise, even if the Southern Army had cut off the Jinpu Railway, it could at least have maintained contact with the First and Second Armies by sea, avoiding the current passive situation.
Terauchi's remarks were very much in line with the Army's position, but not with the reality of the Chinese battlefield or the Navy's position. The Navy would certainly not undermine the Asian alliance for the sake of the Army's continental policy, unless the Army was made the Minister of the Navy.
Tamura thought to himself, but he couldn't say it out loud at the army's high-level meeting. He could only analyze the actual situation on the battlefield: "Even if the navy helped the Beiyang Army take Qingdao without any discount, and thus controlled the Jiaoji Railway and Qingdao Port, it would only give the First Army a way out. It would be impossible to defeat the Southern Army on the battlefield in the end."
Although the Beiyang Army's performance on the battlefield was appalling, according to the estimates of our advisors, the Beiyang Army was not fundamentally different from our army in terms of soldier training and combat organization. The difference lay in the effectiveness of training and organizational capabilities, rather than the fact that the two armies were fundamentally from different eras during the Sino-Japanese War.
For example, Wu Peifu's vanguard unit of the Third Army successfully transitioned from marching to a defensive posture when attacked by the Southern Army. According to our advisors in Wu Peifu's unit, our army's performance may not have been better than Wu Peifu's. However, the Southern Army did not follow conventional tactics and stop to annihilate Wu's unit. Instead, they bypassed Wu's unit and launched a series of attacks on its rear, directly breaking down its rearguard.
The Third Army's defeat was not due to being outmatched in direct combat, but rather to being routed by the Southern Army's mobile forces during the march and being separated into isolated units, thus losing its organizational capacity and the collapse of its battle lines.
I believe that the South Korean army's tactics were actually ahead of ours, at least in corps-level battles on the plains. The South Korean army had developed a set of tactical principles for defeating the enemy in mobile warfare. Our army, on the other hand, was still relying on its experience from the wars against Japan and Russia, unilaterally emphasizing heavy artillery tactics, front-line advances, and bayonet charges.
Therefore, whether the navy assisted the Beiyang Fleet in seizing the Jiaoji Railway and Qingdao Port is not the issue; the real problem is that our army is tactically inferior to the Wuhan Army. If we cannot overcome the Wuhan Army's high-speed assault tactics, even if we fully intervene in the Chinese Civil War, can we turn the tide? We haven't yet entered the war and can still maintain the prestige gained from our victory in the Russo-Japanese War. If we suffer a defeat like the Third Army after entering the war, then it won't be a question of how to divide the mainland's sphere of influence with China.
Although Tamura did not specify the final outcome, the high-ranking army officers present all knew that if the army were to lose to the Chinese army on the actual battlefield, then the prestige that the army had built up since the Sino-Japanese War would be completely destroyed, and the army would completely lose its say in the formulation of national policy.
However, in the face of the possibility that the army's intervention in the Chinese war might lead to failure, Yamagata said that this would not be discussed today. Today's meeting was only to discuss how the army should deal with the various influences brought about by the Chinese civil war. This effectively rejected Tamura's suggestion to use the possibility of failure in intervention to demand that the Choshu faction make adjustments to the army's strategy.
Tamura was greatly disappointed. He felt that Yamagata had indeed become senile, disregarding the fundamental interests of the army for the sake of the Choshu faction's own selfish interests. Lieutenant General Uehara, standing to the side, remained silent. To him, the army's defeat was irrelevant; he needed to seize this opportunity to force the Choshu faction to admit defeat, or for himself to be defeated. This was his chance to rise to prominence.
Since the army's high command was mostly composed of Choshu faction members, and everyone was turning a deaf ear and ignoring the questions raised by General Tamura, then only one question remained: how to maintain the Choshu faction's leadership over the army.
For the Choshu faction, this had become a dilemma: not intervening in the Chinese Civil War would provoke criticism from within the army, and the financial magnates would also be dissatisfied with them because of the loans to the Beiyang Army; intervening, on the other hand, could result in even greater losses, making it even more difficult for the army to bear the responsibility for the defeat.
However, at this moment, Tanaka Giichi, who was listening in from the next room, passed a note to Yamagata. Tanaka was not qualified to attend this meeting, but as the designated third-generation leader of the Choshu faction and a military elite, Yamagata still allowed him to listen in. Tanaka Giichi's proposed solution was to hold a referendum in the coastal area ahead of schedule.
Unable to directly intervene in the Chinese civil war, using a referendum in the coastal region to attract domestic attention could obviously cover up the army cabinet's diplomatic missteps in China. If China were to intervene, it would not be Japan's initiative to intervene in the Chinese civil war.
Yamagata thought this was a good idea. If they could hold a referendum to recognize the coastal area as Japanese territory, then Katsura Taro's resignation wouldn't be a complete defeat, and they could still preserve a glimmer of hope for the continental policy. After all, this referendum would certainly not be recognized by China and Russia, which would highlight the importance of strengthening the army.
Tamura felt that this so-called referendum was nothing but a self-deceiving act, but he also had to admit that pushing for a referendum at this time would indeed be beneficial for Japan to incorporate the coastal areas into Japan. The coastal areas are sparsely populated, and Japan's colonization there would not encounter as many obstacles as it did on the Korean Peninsula.
Tamura was ultimately not Hayashi Shin-yi. His political ideals were largely the same as those of the Choshu faction: to establish a powerful East Asian nation, not to create some new Asian order. With the Choshu faction unwilling to relinquish power, a referendum in the coastal region had become the best option. Uehara, of course, wouldn't stop it. His aim in ousting the Choshu faction was to seize power, not to oppose the army's continental policy.
Although China is facing a true unification, the previous unification was merely political, without reaching consensus on economic, military, and social issues. The new unification will allow the Workers' Party to promote its political ideology throughout the country, thereby establishing a centralized modern state. Japan's continental policy has effectively failed.
However, until the Army proposes a replacement for the Continental Policy, everyone will pretend not to know this prospect and actively uphold the Continental Policy to protect the Army's power, since the Army's current power is built upon the Continental Policy. Uehara Yusaku knows that the Choshu faction is just burying their heads in the sand, but he also knows that exposing this fact will not hurt the Choshu faction; on the contrary, it will disappoint the lower-ranking Army officers and soldiers, making them think that he has betrayed the Army.
As a result, the outcome of the high-level army meeting was completely changed. Previously, the meeting discussed whether Katsura Taro should resign to quell public discontent, but now the discussion focused on how to allow Katsura Taro to step down gracefully.
After returning, Tamura told his confidant Nagata Tetsuzan about the meeting's outcome. Nagata Tetsuzan was greatly surprised by the result and said to Tamura, "Prime Minister Katsura and the Choshu faction may be able to land safely, but how will Japan and the army deal with the diplomatic pressure that will follow?"
Although Russia is currently unable to exert its influence in the Far East, the Russians still harbor resentment over the outcome of the Far East war. How could they possibly accept that my country would completely block Russia's access to the Pacific Ocean? This would lead to a deterioration in diplomatic relations between Russia and my country.
Since China is on the verge of reunification, it will certainly not recognize the referendum result. It may seem that my country can gain a piece of territory, but in reality, it will lose the friendship of two neighboring countries.
With the combined hostility of China and Russia, my country will have no room to maneuver on the mainland. It is clearly impossible for Japan to challenge two continental powers like China and Russia on its own. The foundation for the continuation of its continental policy lies in the mutual distrust between China and Russia; only under such hostility will Japan have an opportunity to expand onto the mainland.
Tamura agreed with Nagata's view, frankly stating, "Actually, I think the continental policy is no longer feasible. In comparison, expanding southward through the Asian Alliance is more likely. However, the Choshu faction cannot accept the reality of the navy dominating national defense. The basis for the Choshu faction's leadership of the army lies in the land-dominated, sea-subordinate structure. If this structure is shaken, the Choshu faction should step down."
Therefore, we can only watch the Choshu faction fail and then try to salvage the situation. It's impossible to change their minds. I think you shouldn't stay in the country; go study in Europe. Right now, there's only infighting, no right or wrong. If you get involved, it will be a loss for the army. The new naval power represented by Lin Xinyi is not something the Choshu faction can handle…”
End of this chapter
Chapter 796
On November 13, the Guangxi army, which had occupied Guangzhou for only a few days, was driven out of Guangzhou by the southward-moving Wuhan army. Since entering Guangdong, Long Jiguang's army had carried out a "pacification" campaign against the areas that resisted, which involved killing, burning, raping, and looting civilians in order to threaten them into not daring to oppose them. This was a tradition of the Qing army.
The brutality of the Ji Army was so extreme that even the local gentry and merchants who supported the Beiyang government could not tolerate it. They even sent a telegram to Yuan Shikai in the name of various groups in Guangdong, requesting that the Ji Army's atrocities be stopped.
But what power did Yuan Shikai have to restrain Long Jiguang? Long Jiguang was merely a follower of the Beiyang Army, not a true member of its inner circle. Moreover, the Beiyang Army itself was already overwhelmed with problems. Appeasing Long Jiguang to continue the fight against Wuhan could alleviate some of the pressure. So Yuan Shikai instead issued an order praising Long Jiguang for his "loyalty, bravery, honesty, and simplicity," thus relieving the "central government's worries about the south."
Yuan Shikai's telegram directly pushed the people of Guangdong toward the revolutionaries and the workers' party. As a result, although the Wuhan army was short of troops when it marched south, it quickly gained the support of the people of Guangdong and suppressed Long Jiguang and the Guangdong militia. Among them, the propaganda team organized by Wuhan performed exceptionally well. Taking advantage of the revolutionary situation in Guangdong, they explained Wuhan's land policy to the peasants in a simple and easy-to-understand way, breaking the landlord class's deception of the peasants.
Previously, Guangdong landlords had falsely accused the Wuhan Workers' Party of plotting to seize their land and enslave the peasants, using this accusation to intimidate independent farmers into joining them in opposing the Workers' Party's organizational development in Guangdong. However, Sun Yat-sen's Chinese Revolutionary Party did not expose these lies; instead, it viewed such propaganda as an asset for the revolutionaries to occupy Guangdong.
However, as it turned out, the revolutionaries' so-called equalization of land ownership could only attract some revolutionary youths. It was impossible to implement it in the countryside. This was because opposing the peasants' violent expropriation of landlords' land meant that the revolutionaries could only rely on the landlord class to promote the policy of equalization of land ownership in the countryside. But how could the landlord class possibly equalize their own land ownership? In the end, it was either just empty words or became an excuse for landlords to expropriate the land of self-cultivating farmers.
Therefore, the Chinese Revolutionary Party had almost no supporters in the countryside. Even if a few young people betrayed the landlord families, they could not change the conservative atmosphere in the countryside. Not to mention equalizing the land rights of others, even equalizing the land rights of one's own family would arouse the anger of other landlords.
The result of unequal land ownership is that people's livelihood is out of the question, and democracy is even more impossible to achieve. Prohibiting peasants from dividing the landlords' land is essentially the landlord class's democracy and the dictatorship over landless peasants. The Chinese Revolutionary Party has actually become a party united by the landlord class and the petty bourgeoisie.
then
When Zhang Mingqi and Long Jiguang launched their armed invasion of Guangdong, the rural areas of Guangdong were indifferent to the revolutionaries' orders to resist. The only base the revolutionaries actually had in Guangdong was Guangzhou, and even Guangzhou was not entirely under their control. The foreign powers' troops, comprador merchants who were close to the foreign powers, and the urban class who supported the revolutionaries divided Guangzhou into three parts.
This made the Ji army's advance on Guangzhou unstoppable. Because the battle went so smoothly, the army's discipline deteriorated. A non-threatening opponent could not stop the Ji army from looting in different areas.
After the Wuhan Army entered Guangdong, it actively mobilized peasants and implemented a rent and interest reduction movement in the countryside. Based on the opinions of the Guangdong Revolutionary Party, the Labor Party decided not to implement land reform in Guangdong for the time being, but to first ease the contradictions with enlightened landlords and prioritize cracking down on reactionary landlords and comprador forces in Guangdong, Guangxi and other places.
This allowed the Workers' Party's army to immediately gain the support of the peasants in the countryside, a stark contrast to the Revolutionary Party's arduous progress in rural Guangdong. Deng Keng and Liao Zhongkai, who were responsible for liaising with the Wuhan army, observed the political propaganda work of the Wuhan military propaganda teams in the countryside and wrote to Sun Yat-sen, Zhu Zhixin, and Hu Hanmin, stating, "Our party's work in the countryside is still focused on cultivating good relations with local powerful families, while the Workers' Party has set its sights on mobilizing the common people. This is the fundamental reason why our party failed in the countryside while the Workers' Party succeeded."
Deng Keng and Liao Zhongkai argued that the revolutionary party should emulate the Workers' Party in launching a campaign to fight in the countryside. The concept of equal land ownership could no longer remain just words; it needed to be put into real action. They should not always worry about the dissatisfaction of the landlord class, but should prioritize the support of the peasants. Otherwise, the party would suffer a complete political defeat.
Sun Yat-sen, who was driven out of Guangzhou, was indeed provoked at this time. He had devoted himself to the revolution for decades, and finally managed to acquire a piece of territory, which was so easily taken away by Zhang Mingqi and Long Jiguang, remnants of the former Qing dynasty. Compared with Cen Chunxuan, these two made no attempt to hide their nostalgia for the Qing dynasty. If the Qing dynasty had not collapsed from the central government, they would never have accepted the Republic of China.
In fact, had it not been for the expulsion of Zhao Erxun, the Governor-General of Yunnan, by progressive forces in Yunnan, former Qing officials in Guangxi and Yunnan might have even considered banding together to await a restoration. It was only after Zhao Erxun's downfall that Guangxi officials realized the Qing dynasty could not be revived, and thus turned to Yuan Shikai, becoming a foothold for the Beiyang government in the south.
Faced with such corrupt and backward feudal warlords, the revolutionaries, who considered themselves to represent advanced civilization, were actually no match for them. This certainly provoked a large part of the revolutionaries. After all, their purpose in joining the revolution was to save the nation from peril and to make the country independent in the world. However, the revolutionaries, who represented advanced civilization, could not even defeat the corrupt remnants of the former Qing Dynasty. How could they talk about confronting the great powers and reclaiming their rights?
In contrast, the Labour Party, which was regarded by the revolutionaries as a new Boxer Rebellion, was not highly regarded by the revolutionaries because it advocated mobilizing workers and peasants to eliminate the landlord class. The revolutionaries believed that the Labour Party had a superficial understanding of European civilization, had absorbed the most violent parts of European civilization, and was completely unaware of what democracy was. They thought it was just another Boxer Rebellion.
The purpose of Sun Yat-sen and others in reorganizing the Tongmenghui was to prevent the Labor Party from continuing to infiltrate the Tongmenghui. Because the Tongmenghui lacked a unified political ideology and a tight organization, the Labor Party could easily infiltrate it. This greatly angered the Guangdong Tongmenghui, which advocated the Three Principles of the People. As a result, they expelled those Tongmenghui organizations that partially agreed with the Labor Party's propositions and rebuilt the Chinese Revolutionary Party, led by Sun Yat-sen.
However, in reality, Sun Yat-sen, who devoted himself to the revolution for decades, was indeed no match for the Workers' Party, which organized the revolution for ten years. While the Chinese Revolutionary Party was driven to nowhere by a vassal under the Beiyang government, the Workers' Party had completely suppressed the Beiyang government and was poised to unify the whole country.
Even if one denies that the Labour Party's land policies were too violent and lacked humanitarianism and democracy, it cannot change the Labour Party's trend of moving from victory to victory. The peasants' support for the Labour Party also shattered the revolutionaries' assessment of the rural situation. The landlords and gentry, whom they believed were the important pillars of rural stability, were completely vulnerable in the face of organized peasants.
For the Chinese Revolutionary Party to survive, a shift from right-wing conservatism to left-wing progressivism became inevitable. Sun Yat-sen, having grown up abroad, didn't have as many baggage as other party members. Therefore, he quickly realized that continuing to cooperate with the landlord class would likely lead to abandonment even by the petty bourgeoisie. After all, his Three Principles of the People attracted educated youth because their goal was to establish a Western-style China—that is, to make China prosperous and strong again.
Even if the petty bourgeoisie did not agree with laborism, the Labor Party did indeed make the country strong. This would inevitably attract these petty bourgeois to support the Labor Party, rather than continuing to follow the slogans of the Chinese Revolutionary Party. The support that the Wuhan army gained in Guangdong also made Sun Yat-sen realize that the landlord class in China was beginning to decline on the political stage, and that continuing to compromise with the landlord class would no longer bring any hope for the future of the revolutionaries.
Therefore, after the Wuhan army recaptured Guangzhou, Sun Yat-sen and the top leaders of the revolutionary party returned to Guangzhou and sent a telegram to Wuhan, expressing their desire to visit Wuhan to learn from its experience in order to reform the revolutionary party. Tian Junyi and other high-ranking members of the Workers' Party accepted Sun Yat-sen's request and arranged a train for Sun Yat-sen and others to travel north.
However, before Sun Yat-sen and others went north, the people of Guangzhou were celebrating the liberation of Guangzhou with a parade when they were shot at by British and French troops.
The massacre occurred in Shamian, Guangzhou, a former British and French concession. This area, a raised sandy expanse near Baietan, housed over 100 Western-style houses and numerous foreign consuls and trading companies. When the Guangxi army attacked Guangzhou, it received support from the foreign powers. It was under the threat of the foreign consuls that the revolutionaries were forced to abandon their plans to defend Guangzhou, allowing the Guangxi army to successfully occupy the city.
After Guangzhou was recovered, the citizens of Guangzhou naturally expressed their indignation at the interference of foreign powers in China's internal affairs. While they were marching to celebrate the recovery of Guangzhou, slogans and banners against the foreign powers also appeared one after another.
Foreigners in the Shamian concession were worried that Guangzhou citizens would forcibly storm the concession and reclaim Shamian, so they imposed a strict blockade on the concession. Not only were eight warships anchored on the waters near Shamian, but barbed wire was also erected and sandcastles were built on the east and west bridges of Shamian, guns were mounted, and heavy machine guns were also placed on high places.
On November 21, as the Guangzhou citizens' march crossed the Shamian East Bridge and was about to enter the inner street via the West Bridge, a foreigner on the West Bridge suddenly opened fire. Soon after, the foreign powers' troops opened fire on the marchers. This sudden incident naturally triggered a counterattack from the Wuhan army. However, facing the artillery superiority of the foreign powers' warships, the Wuhan army ultimately withdrew voluntarily to ensure the safety of the marchers.
The incident resulted in 52 deaths and over 170 serious injuries, not including those who fell into the river and went missing. Not only the British and French opened fire, but Japanese troops also participated in the atrocity. This tragedy directly triggered a confrontation between the Workers' Party and the great powers, and also put the Japanese Navy in a difficult position. The Japanese consulate in Guangzhou followed the actions of Britain and France, bringing Sino-Japanese relations to the brink of collapse.
Lin Xinyi was also helpless about this. After receiving the news, he said to the staff: "If Japan takes the imperialist route, then the Japan-China alliance will not be possible. No independent country will accept an ally that fires on its own civilians. The army and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs are playing with fire and have completely disregarded Japan's interests."
Lin Xinyi's comments were endorsed by the young officers and generals of the Combined Fleet. After all, the Combined Fleet was planning an independence movement against French Indochina at the time. The actions of the Japanese consulate guards and Japanese warships in the Shaki massacre completely undermined the navy's position and created a great obstacle to the navy's southward advance.
At Lin Xinyi's suggestion, the Japanese officers and soldiers of the Combined Fleet advised the Ministry of the Navy to prohibit diplomats stationed in China from mobilizing the navy to threaten Chinese civilians. The Ministry of the Navy announced that it would relinquish its navigation rights in China's inland waters and conduct moral assessments of the soldiers on all warships performing missions overseas. Officers and soldiers with low moral character should be prohibited from going abroad to perform missions.
On this matter, Yamamoto Gonnohyōe became an active supporter of Hayashi Shin'yō, using the Saki massacre as a pretext to demand that the Katsura Taro cabinet explain its reasons for damaging Japan-China relations. Yamamoto was not against the navy firing on the Chinese, but rather demanded that Katsura Taro explain why he fired on the Chinese, whether it was to provoke a war between Japan and China, thus turning the cabinet into a war cabinet to counter public opinion demanding his resignation.
At this time, Japanese public opinion was deeply dissatisfied with Katsura Taro's wrong choice in the Chinese civil war. What made them even more dissatisfied was that Katsura Taro seemed unwilling to admit defeat and tried to force the passage of the troop increase bill in the parliament, indicating his intention to implement military dictatorship. As a result, the calls for his cabinet to be overthrown grew louder and louder.
Katsura Taro's health wasn't actually very good; he had been seriously ill two years prior, but recovered only after a long period of recuperation. However, under this political pressure, Katsura Taro's condition relapsed. Hasegawa Yoshimichi and Terauchi Masatake began to take charge of planning the army's direction. Although Yamagata Aritomo was the leader of the Choshu faction, he mainly focused on mediating relationships within the Choshu faction and no longer interfered much in the specific affairs of the army.
The trio of Katsura Taro, Hasegawa Yoshimichi, and Terauchi Masatake had previously controlled the army and influenced Yamagata's direction to some extent. However, Katsura Taro at least knew what he was doing, while Hasegawa Yoshimichi and Terauchi Masatake were closer to the nature of soldiers and preferred to use forceful attacks when faced with problems.
Regarding the Shaqi massacre, both Hasegawa Yoshimichi and Terauchi Masatake opposed showing weakness to China. They believed it was a unified action by the great powers, and Japan had no reason to apologize to China. They argued that if the Chinese had any grievances, they should first confront the British, not the Japanese. The Army scoffed at the Navy Ministry's suggestions for repairing Sino-Japanese relations, deeming the Navy overly cowardly.
The Army's firm rejection of the Navy's suggestion greatly angered Yamamoto Gonnohyōe. He went directly to Katsura Taro's hospital room and denounced him. Katsura Taro, mindful of the Navy's reaction, silently endured Yamamoto's rebuke. However, Hasegawa and Terauchi could not accept it. In particular, after Yamamoto met with Katsura Taro, he immediately went to Ito Hirobumi and publicly stated that Katsura Taro was no longer suitable to serve as Prime Minister, which violated the unspoken rules of politics.
Generally speaking, political factions can only urge a prime minister to resign voluntarily, but cannot humiliate him for incompetence and demand his resignation. Doing so would mean the end of his political life, making it difficult for that faction to win another chance to form a cabinet. Yamamoto Gonnohyōe clearly hadn't yet recovered from his days as the autocratic Minister of the Navy, making a highly inappropriate demand of the army's leader.
Yamamoto Gonnohyōe's move led to public support for him to succeed Katsura Taro in forming a cabinet, which undoubtedly violated the principle of fair competition. As a result, Hasegawa and Terauchi made a request to Yamagata to expose the naval corruption case in order to attract public attention and damage Yamamoto Gonnohyōe's reputation.
Akashi Motojiro already possessed sufficient evidence to prove that the Navy had engaged in rampant corruption in past shipbuilding programs, particularly in contracts for purchasing warships from foreign countries, where kickbacks were blatant. However, just as Akashi obtained the evidence, Emperor Meiji had passed away, and to maintain order in the domestic political arena, Yamagata Aritomo concealed the evidence of corruption.
However, the Choshu faction now believes that the Navy's political actions have seriously violated political rules and taken inappropriate actions against the Army. Therefore, the Army should not hold back and should give the Navy a good beating.
Yamagata's hesitation also stemmed from the fact that Yamamoto Gonbei was now a senior elder. Since the senior elder Kuroda Kiyotaka was attacked by public opinion, the reputation of the senior elders was greatly affected, so there were very few direct attacks between the senior elders afterward.
Regarding Yamagata's hesitation, Akashi Motojiro suggested that Siemens could expose itself, since he had bribed Siemens' representative in Japan to obtain the information. Therefore, as long as that person returned to Europe to retrieve the accounting books and demand a huge extortion from Siemens, Siemens would have no choice but to sue in Europe to evade responsibility.
When news of naval corruption reached Japan from Europe, it naturally stirred the patriotism of the Japanese people, prompting them to investigate the naval corruption. This allowed the army to clear its name without having to expose the naval scandal itself.
Akashi Motojiro's suggestion was agreed upon by Yamagata. If the army could be kept out of the fray, he would not mind giving the navy a heavy blow. After all, the army's investment in the Chinese Civil War had been a complete failure. If the navy was not allowed to cause some problems, the army would look too bad.
NABC