Twentieth Century Chronicle

Page 25

After giving Lin Muzi a gentle hug, Lin Xinyi winked at Cai E, signaling him to quietly return to his room. About half an hour later, Lin Xinyi secretly went to Cai E's room next door.

His first words to Cai E were: "You really shouldn't have come here. To prevent foreigners from spying on Etajima's secrets, foreigners are not allowed on the island. If it weren't for Miss Mu Zi, you would have been arrested as a spy by now."

Cai E smiled and said, "Luckily, we have Miss Mu Zi, don't we?"

Lin Xinyi sat cross-legged opposite Cai E and said, "Fortunately, tomorrow is Qixi Festival, so as long as you don't go out and wander around, they shouldn't suspect that you are a foreigner. However, I hope you won't take such a risk next time, otherwise it will be difficult for me to explain my connection with you."

Cai E apologized to Lin Xinyi, then explained his purpose for coming, and said, "We have paid such a high price, and it has been so hard to see a little opportunity that we can take advantage of. We want to seize this opportunity no matter what, so Junyi hopes that I can meet with you and ask for your opinion."

After listening to Cai E's words, Lin Xinyi fell into deep thought. History had indeed deviated; at least in his account, the foreign powers had no intention of making concessions to the Qing government. Just as Tian Junyi and Cai E believed, this was an opportunity, and if this opportunity could be seized, it would greatly shorten the time it took to overthrow the Qing government.

While Lin Xinyi was deep in thought, Lin Muzi brought in the sake and side dishes that the shopkeeper had sent, arranged them for the two of them, and then quietly withdrew.

After thinking for nearly 40 minutes, Lin Xinyi finally spoke up: "This is indeed an opportunity. It would be a waste to use this opportunity only to reduce the indemnity. I think we should take advantage of this opportunity to regain some of the power to control tariffs and lay a foundation for China's industrialization."

Cai E immediately asked nervously, "What do you mean?"

Lin Xinyi looked at him seriously and said, "Whenever industry is established, capital must be raised. The reason why the Hanyang Ironworks is failing is because it is difficult to raise capital. Therefore, if China wants to develop industry, it must first establish a central bank that can raise capital."

The Germans wanted to receive the reparations as quickly as possible because they lacked stable control over the Far East. The British, on the other hand, wanted to prolong the payment period because they possessed a powerful fleet and were not afraid that China would default. If the reparations were to be paid indefinitely, then China's customs duties and salt taxes would be controlled by the great powers, and the Chinese economy would be under their control. How could China then develop its own industry?

Cai E nodded in agreement, also believing that using tariffs as collateral was indeed a conspiracy by the great powers. Lin Xinyi then said, "China should propose establishing a central bank with indemnities as its capital, implementing currency reform, and having the bank uniformly repay indemnities to various countries, while tariffs and salt taxes would be pledged to the central bank..."

Chapter 86 Report on Added Courses

After seeing Cai E off, Lin Xinyi returned to his studies. However, the new topic of the naval seminar reached a stalemate, because no matter how everyone analyzed it, as long as they came into contact with the South China Sea, they would have to face the naval power of the United States and Britain.

At this time, the world's discovered oil deposits were located in the United States, Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, and Myanmar and Sumatra. For rubber, Brazil and Southeast Asia were the main producers, followed by some areas in Africa. In the copper industry, the United States, Chile, and Peru were rich in resources, followed by Japan and Russia. Aluminum was an emerging industry, with France and the United States possessing key technologies. Compared to bauxite resources, electricity and electrolytic aluminum technology were crucial for aluminum production.

A simple investigation leads to the conclusion that South America and Southeast Asia were actually more important to Japan's Second Industrial Revolution than neighboring China. While the army might covet land on the mainland, for the navy, controlling resources beneficial to its development was the top priority.

However, neither the United States nor the United Kingdom were entities that Japan could challenge, because the national strength of these two countries was simply too terrifying. This is also the main reason why discussions about Southeast Asia can no longer proceed, as the strength of the adversaries has exceeded the upper limit of what Japan can contend with.

Both new and veteran navigators were losing confidence in the face of this situation, believing that this new challenge might have to be declared a failure, because from any perspective, Japan had no chance of winning. However, no one dared to openly point this out, as it would damage their own image. After all, if the navy lacked the courage to challenge a powerful enemy, it would almost be tantamount to denying the navy's future development potential.

While the members of the naval seminar were debating whether the new topic was feasible, Hayashi Shin-yi wrote a report for Principal Kawahara. After reading the report, Kawahara quickly summoned Hayashi Shin-yi to his office.

When no one else was around, Kawahara Yoichi was still willing to show his friendliness to Hayashi Shinichi, so he invited Hayashi Shinichi to sit down on the sofa in the reception area and talk to him, "Make yourself at home. Today I just want to have a casual chat with you, without having to talk as superior and subordinate."

Lin Xinyi readily sat down, and Kawahara then looked at him and said, "I've read your report, but I have some doubts. I think you've been attending classes at the school for more than half a year, so you should be familiar with the school's atmosphere. Soldiers shouldn't interfere in politics, so military academy students shouldn't be concerned with politics either, do you understand?"

Lin Xinyi nodded and said, "Ordinary soldiers should indeed not interfere in politics, but I don't think it's a good thing for military academy students to not care about politics. On the contrary, it will become a flaw for officers who graduate from military academies."

After thinking for a moment, Kawahara Yoichi asked, "Why do you think that way?"

Lin Xinyi said, "Cannonballs don't need thought, and cannons don't need thought either, but the person operating the cannon does need thought, otherwise he might aim the cannon at the wrong target. Ordinary soldiers shouldn't interfere in politics, because they don't have thought; it's the officers who need thought."

In my view, officers can be divided into three categories: officers who operate warships, officers who lead the navy, and finally, the ministers who lead Japan. Of these three categories, only officers who operate warships are not closely related to politics; the other two categories are closely related to politics, and ultimately, the latter two categories are selected from the first category of officers.

Therefore, our school's advocacy that military personnel should not interfere in politics is nothing more than self-deception, because officers who do not interfere in politics cannot become ministers. And if naval officers cannot become ministers, how can the country's policies be shifted in a direction favorable to the navy?

Kawahara's expression changed slightly as he looked at Hayashi Shin'ichi and said, "Isn't it a bit too early for you to start thinking about becoming a minister now?"

Lin Xinyi nodded and said, "It's too early for the students, but it's actually too late for you, Principal."

Kawahara was taken aback by these words, unsure how to communicate with this overly principled student. However, even excluding Lin Xinyi's retort, it couldn't be said that Lin Xinyi's ideas were wrong, since he was currently benefiting from what the other party had done.

He could only put aside the relationship between the military and politics for the time being and changed the subject, saying, "Alright, let's get back to the main topic. Why is your new research topic related to studying socialist ideology? What exactly is this socialist ideology?"

Lin Xinyi said calmly, "After two months of discussion, I found that the students are completely unable to judge the internal cohesion of a country. They always try to regard the country as a whole and then look for ways to defeat it. But under this wrong perception, they always exaggerate the strength of the enemy, thus giving rise to the idea that it is difficult to defeat a powerful enemy."

I believe that to continue researching this new topic, we must correct students' misconceptions about the world, enabling them to learn how to analyze the enemy's strength correctly and exploit its internal contradictions to defeat it. To gain a correct understanding of the world, socialist ideology based on materialism is the most suitable approach.

So-called socialist ideology involves splitting a country into two classes, upper and lower, and then attacking the upper class from the perspective of the lower class. Both the British Empire and the United States had a lower class that was discriminated against, oppressed, and humiliated. If we can utilize their power, then defeating Britain and the United States is not difficult. At the very least, we must show our members what the path to defeating Britain and the United States is.”

Kawahara stared at Hayashi Shinichi for a long time before softly saying, "Won't such thinking disturb the morale of the navy? What if they apply this kind of thinking domestically? I think the higher-ups would not approve of instilling such ideas in the military."

Lin Xinyi met the principal's gaze with unwavering expression. The fact that these high-ranking naval officers could connect the dots so quickly with the situation back home showed they weren't some ignorant gentry. This thought flashed through his mind, but he calmly said, "For a samurai, any sword is merely a weapon for killing. Killing is the goal; the weapon itself is not important."

For me, defeating Britain and America is the most important goal. Whether achieving this goal will harm me is not a concern for a samurai. A navy that is constantly worried about this and that will eventually find itself incapable of accomplishing anything. Principal, I don't think you want the future navy to become a useless fleet, do you?

Kawahara finally got angry after hearing this. He got up and paced back and forth in his office, saying, "This is not a question of what the navy should become in the future, but rather that instilling such a dangerous ideology in the military will threaten the future of the Empire."

After a moment of silence, Lin Xinyi said, "I had a conversation with Xixiang Hou before when I entered the Navy. At that time, Xixiang Hou told me that as long as I could make the future of the Navy promising, he would always support me. Since I entered the school, I have been working hard for the future of the Navy. If you, Principal, think that this effort is not worth mentioning, then I can resign and withdraw from the school."

Kawahara stopped in his tracks, looking at Lin Xinyi. He secretly wished the boy would experience the true meaning of being instilled with naval spirit. However, he knew he couldn't do that. Given Lin Xinyi's performance since entering the academy, if he successfully graduated, he would undoubtedly secure a place in the navy. Why should he make an enemy of such a promising young man? Besides, he himself wasn't without descendants who wanted to join the navy.

After a long silence, Kawahara said in a low voice, "Are you so confident that you control the future of the Navy? Do you know that you have already offended quite a few people? If you make any mistakes, you may face a series of blows."

Lin Xinyi nodded his thanks to the principal, but still said nonchalantly, "If I didn't have the determination to succeed or die trying, then I wouldn't have needed to boast in front of Marquis Xixiang. Compared to the suppression I've received from others and the displeasure I've caused Marquis Xixiang, isn't that a more tragic fate?"

Kawahara finally gave up on persuading Lin Xinyi. He said to Lin Xinyi, "Since you believe this is a promise to Lord Saigo, then I will forward the report to Lord Saigo. If Lord Saigo truly agrees, then the school will naturally provide assistance. If Lord Saigo does not approve of this report, then you should abandon this idea..."

When Saigo Tsukimichi received the report from Kawahara Yoichi, he was on his way to a meeting at the palace, so he simply took the report with him and started reading it.

When Saigo arrived at the palace meeting room, the Emperor had not yet come out. Yamagata Aritomo, who was sitting opposite him, suddenly greeted him and asked, "The navy seems to be making quite a bit of noise lately. Has something happened?"

Saigo Tsurumi replied calmly, "No, the Navy is operating normally, there is no problem."

Yamagata Aritomo frowned and looked at Saigo, saying, "Really? I heard that the issue of reciting the 'Soldiers' Imperial Edict' has caused quite a stir in the fleet."

Saigo looked up at Yamagata and said, "There's really no problem. Even if there is, it's not about reciting the Imperial Rescript to Soldiers and Soldiers. The Navy is just trying to unify its thinking and discussing what the Navy is. Compared to the Army's discussions on this matter, the Navy is almost ten years behind."

Yamagata was speechless, having been cornered. Saigo was referring to the past debate within the army over the French or German military system, which ultimately saw the mainstream faction, those supporting the German system, prevail. Saigo used this to deflect Yamagata's questions, and Yamagata indeed couldn't press the matter further; doing so would be seen as interfering in the navy's internal affairs.

Oyama Iwao and Matsukata Masayoshi glanced at the two men, but remained silent. They genuinely didn't understand what they were talking about; only Yamagata had received a whisper of the internal naval reorganization.

Just then, accompanied by Ito Hirobumi and the Minister of the Imperial Household, Emperor Meiji entered the conference room. Yamagata and Saigo, watching Ito Hirobumi again go off to speak privately with Emperor Meiji, were speechless for a moment. Among the elder statesmen, Ito Hirobumi's relationship with Emperor Meiji was the closest, a relationship that no one else could surpass.

Chapter 87 The Pressure of Public Opinion

Today's Imperial Conference mainly discussed the China issue, specifically the change in Russia's stance on Manchuria and the progress of negotiations between various countries and the Qing government.

Yamagata Aritomo did not trust Russia's change of stance. He said to the Emperor, "According to the intelligence obtained by the army, the Russians show no signs of withdrawing their troops in northern Manchuria. Russia's so-called reconsideration of the Manchurian issue seems more like an explanation to domestic public opinion pressure, rather than a genuine desire to return Manchuria to China."

After a lengthy analysis, Yamagata concluded that Japan and Russia would likely have to fight a war over the Manchurian issue to force Russia to back down on the Manchurian and Korean issues.

While there might be a possibility of compromise on the Manchurian issue, there was no possibility of compromise on the Korean issue—this was the general consensus among those present. Given Russia's inherent greed, no Japanese would willingly allow Russian power to be present on the Korean Peninsula. With Choshu directly facing the Korean Peninsula, the army's vigilance towards Russia was even greater.

Ito Hirobumi commented on Yamagata's claims, saying, "What Lord Yamagata said is not without reason. Given Russia's inherently greedy nature and the Europeans' contempt for our country, Russia will not respect our interests on the Korean Peninsula, just as Russia has never respected China's rights in Manchuria, Outer Mongolia, and Xinjiang."

For the Russians, kind words are not enough to sway them; only a forceful counterattack can make them realize that they have trespassed on someone else's territory. This is also the reason why Europe enjoyed decades of peace after the Crimean War…

Ito Hirobumi's change of stance did not bring comfort to Yamagata; instead, it made him frown. He knew that Ito still opposed initiating a war with Russia. Otherwise, he would not have withdrawn from the Greater Tokyo Area development plan after taking office, as it was a policy of strengthening national power rather than outward expansion.

Sure enough, Ito's words soon took a turn: "However, the Empire has worked diligently for more than thirty years to build up its current foundation. We should consider how to defeat Russia, rather than risk a war with Russia."

Oyama couldn't help but interject, saying, "The only way to defeat Russia is to start the war before its Trans-Siberian Railway is completed. Then our army can completely suppress its forces in the Far East. Our navy can also destroy Russia's Pacific Fleet before the Russian European Fleet arrives in East Asia. In this way, Russia's army and navy in the Far East will be defeated by us."

Saigo Tsurumi disagreed, saying, "This is only focusing on the immediate problem. Russia has launched nearly five battleships this year, and its navy is rapidly expanding. Even if some forces are transferred from Europe to join its Pacific fleet, its maritime power in East Asia will surpass that of our country. For the navy, we must make every step correct in order to achieve final victory. The sooner the war starts, the greater the risk to the navy."

Matsukata Masayoshi and Inoue Kaoru also opposed going to war with Russia, believing that the war would be too unpredictable and would place a huge burden on Japan's finances. After Itō Hirobumi proposed the mandatory foreign exchange settlement and the Greater Tokyo Development Plan, the financial and business communities had a new development goal, and their support for the war naturally declined.

Yamagata Aritomo and Oyama Iwao quickly realized that only the army remained in support of the war; the navy, business community, and financial circles were shifting from neutrality to opposition. Yamagata was forced to change his approach and ask Ito, "So, in Lord Ito's eyes, what is the way to defeat Russia?"

Ito Hirobumi thought for a moment and said, "Someone once told me a story about a gluttonous snake... In my opinion, Russia is just such a greedy snake. It has swallowed all the weak countries and peoples around it without any scruples, but it has no ability to digest them."

Once this process of consuming reaches its maximum capacity, the nations and peoples it has swallowed will burst its belly, thus restoring Russia to its original form.

I believe China will be the last prey to burst Russia's belly. What we need to do is not to stop Russia from swallowing China, but to accelerate Russia's swallowing of China, so that the country will explode from within.

When a country begins to crumble internally, it is much easier to defeat it with minimal effort. And such defeat in external wars further exacerbates Russia's internal divisions. This is what I believe is the key to victory against Russia.

Itō Hirobumi's position has indeed been revised, a fact further confirmed by Yamagata. This revision is a further refinement of last year's position. Last year, Itō argued that Russia could not annex China because it lacked the cultural and institutional foundation for doing so. Today, Itō advocates that the way to defeat Russia is to make it prioritize the annexation of Chinese territory, thereby triggering internal strife within Russia.

Oyama Iwao seemed unable to accept Ito Hirobumi's idea, and he questioned, "The idea that Russia cannot annex China is ultimately just an unproven speculation. Since the Manchus were able to rule China for more than 200 years, why couldn't the Tsars? If the Russians really occupied and assimilated China, who could shake such a continental country with a vast territory and population?"

Ito Hirobumi calmly replied, "Britain will not allow this to happen. Please remember, the power with the greatest interests in China is Britain, not our country. Russia's expansion in the East is undermining Britain's global order, and this is a responsibility that Britain should bear, not Japan's."

What we need to do is hold the bottom line on the Korean Peninsula and make the Russians realize that it's better to invade a weak but wealthy China than to go to war with us. I believe that the Russians will not compete with us for the Korean Peninsula until they run into a wall in China. What we need to do is deepen the contradictions between China and Russia, making it impossible for these two countries to talk about peace.

Even if Russia were to mobilize all its European troops, it would be insufficient to maintain order in a country like China with its vast territory and population. Furthermore, Russia's fleet would be unable to project its deterrent power against a China that had lost its central authority.

Finally, according to Chinese history, when the Manchus invaded China last time, they actively sought our help. So, this time, facing the brink of national extinction, the Chinese will certainly do the same. Then, our country can rightfully take control of China. Isn't that better than risking our national destiny to go to war with the Russians now, with no guarantee of any gain…”

The army was once again suppressed by Ito Hirobumi at the Imperial Conference. The change in the navy's stance made Yamagata very concerned, which made him start to devote some of his energy to paying attention to the navy's movements.

In July, led by Liu Kunyi and with Zhang Zhidong as the chief drafter, and Zhang Jian, Shen Zengzhi, Tang Shouqian, Tang Caichang, Tian Bangxuan, Qin Lishan, and others participating in the planning, the Governors-General of Liangjiang and Huguang jointly submitted the "Three Memorials on Reform from the Jiang-Chu Joint Conference," proposing reform measures such as establishing schools, training a new army, encouraging industry and commerce, and reducing redundant personnel.

On July 24, Zhang Zhidong proposed establishing a central bank to handle indemnities, pledging customs duties and salt taxes to the central bank, implementing a monetary policy of abolishing the tael and adopting the yuan, and reforming customs duties by levying customs fees and implementing measures such as adjusting customs duties.

Zhang Zhidong's memorial to the throne initially received support from the Germans. This greatly surprised the British, Russians, Japanese, and Americans, because the Germans were the most vocal advocates of severely punishing the Chinese, and by all accounts, they should not have supported these measures that benefited China.

However, everyone quickly realized that Zhang Zhidong had suggested requesting Germany's help in establishing a central bank, arguing that Germany was the only country with experience in managing a central bank, while other countries had privately-run banks that were not suitable for China's current needs.

For Germany, this was a windfall, a gift from heaven. They could intervene in China's financial affairs without doing anything, so naturally they couldn't refuse. The German minister, in a meeting with Li Hongzhang, bluntly stated that if China could invite Germany to participate in the establishment of a central bank, Germany would support the Qing government not only on the issue of indemnities but also on tariff reforms. Furthermore, the German government would show greater understanding towards the Qing government regarding the death of Minister Ketteler.

Although Li Hongzhang had always believed that the British Empire was the true world hegemon and that going against the British would bring no benefit, he could no longer afford to worry about such things now. The gentry of the southeast had begun to rise up against the Huai clique, believing that the country's problems stemmed from them. Even Yuan Shikai had to issue a statement expressing his continued support for the Southeast Mutual Protection Agreement and his shock and confusion regarding Shandong's share of the indemnity payments.

In Huguang, public opinion began to escalate regarding the confiscation of the Huai Army's capital in the Hanyang Ironworks, while in Liangjiang, there were also some rumors about confiscating the Huai Army's local assets. The date for signing the peace treaty with the foreigners was repeatedly postponed, and Li Hongzhang now knew that if the peace treaty was signed according to the previous outline of negotiations, the Huai Army would probably be the first to perish.

Li Hongzhang would have no psychological qualms about having the Chinese pay to perpetuate the Manchu regime, but he lacked the courage to do so at the cost of the Huai clique's demise. This was clearly demonstrated in the First Sino-Japanese War and the Southeast Mutual Protection Pact.

The gentry in the southeast now see the Huai Army as the root of all evil. By signing the treaty, they are essentially signing a death sentence for the Huai Army. Empress Dowager Cixi is unlikely to transfer the resentment of the southeast gentry onto herself for the sake of the Huai Army. In fact, public opinion is now more favorable to Cixi, because, incited by the Southeast Protection Conference, public opinion has shifted from focusing on who instigated the Boxer Rebellion to who betrayed China.

Compared to the previous relatively scattered attacks, which were directed at the ignorant masses, the die-hards like Prince Duan, or Empress Dowager Cixi, the current focus is entirely on Li Hongzhang and the Huai clique, who first proposed the Southeast Mutual Protection Pact and later advocated unconditional surrender. Has the Chinese people formed such a unified national opinion?

Chapter 88 Reform Strategies

In July, Wuchang was already quite hot. However, the tall wooden buildings inside the Wuchang Governor's Mansion managed to lower the indoor temperature by several degrees through air circulation, making it feel quite cool when sitting in the hall.

Zhang Zhidong, dressed in a short-sleeved shirt and holding a folding fan, sat in the reception room, intently listening to the young man standing in the room. Cai E, dressed in a long coarse linen gown, stood in the hall, earnestly explaining to Zhang Zhidong the monetary principles he had learned from Lin Xinyi.

"...Looking around the world, all countries now use the gold standard as the basis of their currency. Only our country and India and other Eastern countries still use silver as currency. However, this time, various countries are forcing our country to sign huge indemnities, and they also want to use customs duties and salt taxes as collateral. In other words, we have to pay a batch of gold to foreign countries every year. This means that we cannot use silver as currency. We have to exchange it for gold on the international market before other countries will recognize and accept our compensation."

Therefore, from the date this compensation agreement is signed, the price of gold will inevitably rise every day, while the price of silver will inevitably fall every day. Just because of this exchange rate difference between gold and silver, our annual compensation will be more than the currently agreed 1880 million taels of silver, because we need to make up for the exchange rate difference caused by the annual rise in the price of gold.

my country's gold and silver resources are not abundant to begin with, and it is impossible to pay the compensation by mining gold resources on its own. Therefore, it can only rely on exports to earn foreign exchange to acquire gold. However, this export-for-for-foreign-exchange activity mainly involves four categories: exporting agricultural products, exporting raw materials, exporting manufactured goods, and exporting labor.

With gold prices rising and silver prices falling, for my country, exporting agricultural products and raw materials is the most unprofitable option. However, exporting manufactured goods or labor can actually stimulate economic development, making it a case of fortune and misfortune intertwined.

Therefore, we should establish a central bank to enforce mandatory foreign exchange settlement for imports and exports, keeping gold and foreign currency under its control. This would reduce exchange rate losses for annual indemnity payments. Furthermore, mandatory settlement would compel domestic and foreign merchants to invest their funds in production rather than personal consumption, thereby expanding tax revenue…

Regarding tariffs, a differentiated tax rate approach should be adopted. For example, for the steel industry, we should impose protective tariffs on finished products. A ton of steel rails produced in the United States sells for only $17, which is lower than the cost price of the Hanyang Ironworks. The British steel industry is completely unable to compete with the American steel industry. Therefore, our request to raise tariffs on steel products will not encounter much opposition from the British.

The main products sold by Britain in my country are cotton fabrics and cotton yarns. However, British coarse yarns and fabrics also face competition from the United States and Japan in my country. On the other hand, British products have an absolute advantage in the market for fine yarns and fabrics.

Therefore, we should propose not to restrict the sale of fine yarn and fine cloth, but to implement a quota system for the market of coarse yarn and coarse cloth, guaranteeing quotas to the British while also leaving some room for the development of our own cotton textile industry…”

Zhang Zhidong actually started to feel dizzy after listening to less than half of it, because what Cai E was saying was too trivial. It was like breaking down the originally unified import and export tax into each category and recalculating the tax rate. This overly detailed classification was simply too troublesome for officials like them, and it was indeed not as easy to understand as the previous system of taking three out of every hundred or five out of every hundred.

However, Zhang Zhidong was also well aware that while the old tariffs were easy to understand, they had indeed caused the Chinese to suffer losses. Furthermore, Cai E had mentioned the importance of saving the Hanyang Ironworks, which was also Zhang's primary concern. For him, the Hanyang Ironworks had become a thorn in his side. The factory, built with so much money, had become a money-losing business that no one wanted to take over, which was a blow to his reputation. To save the Hanyang Ironworks, he had no choice but to bring in a wolf into the fold, allowing Sheng Xuanhuai to invest in it.

If he could use this opportunity to revitalize the Hanyang Ironworks, he wouldn't mind giving it a try. However, he still asked cautiously, "Songpo, your plan is very detailed, and it sounds like it would be very beneficial to the country. But will the foreign powers agree to sign a peace treaty according to our wishes? Although the foreign powers have lowered their stance somewhat, they still have guns and cannons. They can't possibly spit out the meat that's already in their mouths, can they?"

Tian Bangxuan immediately stood up and said, "Master Xiang, although there is a so-called principle of unity among the great powers, the unity among them is not as consistent as it seems. Their positions are still different."

The Russians wanted to cede territory, Britain and Germany were more interested in commercial gains, Japan, France, and the United States were more interested in reparations, and other countries were just following the crowd.

Currently, it appears that eleven countries are against us, but in reality, only Britain, Germany, and Russia are truly in control of the negotiations. If we can persuade Germany and Britain, then the other countries will not be a problem.

Zhang Zhidong sighed and said, "Persuading Germany and Britain is easy to say but difficult to do. I have dealt with the Germans more than once or twice, but I always feel that the Germans are really unreasonable and not as easy to deal with as the British."

Regarding the Germans' assessment, Tian Bangxuan actually quite agreed with Zhang Zhidong's viewpoint. Germans possessed a strange arrogance, completely regarding people of color as inferior beings. Therefore, even when a proposal was clearly beneficial to Germany, their arrogance would lead them to reject it.

In fact, if the Germans had lowered their stance even slightly, they could have reached some cooperative agreements with Germany before the German expeditionary force landed in China, thus avoiding the attention of the British. After all, at that time, all countries were focused on the situation in Beijing, and no one would have noticed the changes happening on the ground.

However, the Germans were arrogant and overconfident, believing that everything would be resolved once their troops arrived in China. Therefore, they refused any beneficial negotiations, thus wasting valuable time. With the end of the Northern War, Britain turned its attention back to the Yangtze River basin, and at this point, the British were unwilling to allow Germany to expand its influence in the middle reaches of the Yangtze.

After all, Britain's compromise with Germany was in the Yangtze River region, not the Yangtze River basin upstream. The Germans only changed their attitude after realizing that while their expeditionary force was capable, it couldn't control such a vast territory, and they felt they needed to rely on pro-German figures within China to protect their interests in China.

However, compared to the arrogant Germans, Tian Bangxuan was more wary of the British. While the Germans were arrogant, they were willing to admit to signing contracts, meaning they kept their word. The British, on the other hand, although seemingly friendly to the Chinese, always tried to deceive them. The Southeast Mutual Protection Agreement once again proved that the British were a power without any moral compass.

After repeated comparisons, Tian Bangxuan had to admit that Lin Xinyi's judgment was reasonable. Cooperating with the Germans still offered a chance to succeed, but cooperating with the British would only lead to them swallowing you whole.

While thinking, Tian Bangxuan said to Zhang Zhidong, "General Xiang, you are mistaken. Although the British are easy to deal with, they are untrustworthy. We dutifully abided by the Southeast Mutual Protection Agreement, but the British reneged on it and even shot at our people. No matter how much we negotiate with such powers, it will be useless."

Although the Germans are difficult to persuade, they will still stand on our side if we offer sufficient benefits. And as long as we guarantee that British interests in the Yangtze River basin are not harmed, Britain cannot continue to obstruct us and force us to completely side with Germany.

Zhang Zhidong hesitated for a long time before finally saying, "Can this industrial development plan you're talking about really persuade the Germans to support us?"

Tian Bangxuan said, "If we convert all the indemnities from the first five years into development bonds for Huguang, it would amount to 9500 million taels of silver. If this money were invested in the construction of Huguang, it would be a huge order. Such an order would be tempting enough for Germany and Britain. For Germany and Britain, their indemnities would not only not decrease, but they would also gain an industrial order, which is equivalent to obtaining double the benefits. Why would they refuse?"

Zhang Zhidong nodded and then shook his head, saying, "What you said is indeed correct. If we were to propose such an order to Germany and Britain, they would certainly be interested. But how will Huguang be able to repay such a huge loan in the future?"

Tian Bangxuan immediately said, "Hubei province alone has more than 30 million mu of arable land, but less than one-third of it is irrigated. If we can build water conservancy projects and increase the irrigated farmland to two-thirds, then just these 10 million mu can increase production by 1 to 2 liang."

Furthermore, based on our investigations in various rural areas, the land ownership situation in each region is as follows: landless hired laborers account for about 30% to 40% of the rural population; small farmers who need to rent land or just cultivate it themselves account for 30% to 40% of the rural population; large farmers who need to hire laborers to cultivate the land account for about 15% to 16% of the rural population; and landlords, who make up less than half of the rural population, own nearly 30% of the arable land, all of which is fertile land.

The annual income of hired laborers varied. Those who were provided with meals received an additional 6-7 taels of silver as wages; those who were not provided with meals received 13-14 taels of silver. Roughly, one person working could support two others. If land was rented for farming, the laborer had to pay the landlord half or more of the harvest each year. Only when working in the fields would the amount drop to around 40% of the harvest.

This shows that farmers are living in extreme poverty, either already bankrupt or on the verge of bankruptcy. I believe that to revitalize the economy, we must first revitalize the countryside. Without a healthy rural economy, industry and commerce cannot develop, and without industrial and commercial development, tax revenue naturally cannot increase. Therefore, reforming the current land ownership system and tax system is inevitable.

Tian Bangxuan's data was quite definitive, and Zhang Zhidong nodded slightly upon hearing it. He then asked, "How do you think the land ownership system and taxes should be reformed?"

Tian Bangxuan took a deep breath before calmly saying, "First, we should forcibly buy back the land from landlords and then distribute it to landless peasants and small farmers; second, we should reduce rents and interest rates to give farmers some breathing room; third, we should unite small and middle farmers to establish production cooperatives to reduce their production costs..."

Chapter 89 What is Revolution?