Twentieth Century Chronicle

Page 235

If we continue to emphasize our control over Qingdao and Shandong, then the Chinese will perceive us no differently than the Russians. Once Germany becomes seen as barbarians by the Chinese, we will face a joint attack from Japan and China. The East Asian Fleet might be able to confront the Japanese Navy, but it will not be able to withstand a Chinese land attack.

If China views Germany as an enemy, Germany will lose not only Qingdao but all its interests in Asia, because it will gain no support from any allies in the region. The population and resources of the Pacific islands are insufficient to maintain their own security, and we cannot send our entire high seas fleet to Asia; that would only give the Royal Navy an opportunity to attack.

Wilhelm II knew very well that Tirpitz was telling the truth. The British even wanted to storm into German ports and destroy the High Seas Fleet, forcing the German fleet to leave its European home port for the Far East. He estimated that the German fleet would not fare much better than the Russian Far East Fleet.

Even the German Navy Minister, who was most insistent on maintaining Qingdao, believed that concessions should be made to the Chinese. Therefore, the attitudes of others became even more ambiguous. The German government had consistently opposed keeping Qingdao as a colony because, according to the navy's requirements, Qingdao needed to be developed into a German naval base in Asia. As a result, a large amount of funding was allocated to Qingdao for port and railway construction. The German government never profited from this colony, which greatly dissatisfied the German capitalists.

The power to build Qingdao was almost entirely controlled by the navy, which was building Qingdao as a military fortress. Therefore, German capital investment in Qingdao was strictly controlled. The navy did not need economic benefits, but rather to ensure the operation of the Qingdao naval base. As a result, German capital quickly abandoned Qingdao and went to Wuhan instead.

According to members of the German-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, a city built by Germans is not as commercially viable as a Chinese city. Qingdao needs Germans in uniform, not businessmen. Qingdao should make it clear that commercial investment is prohibited in the city.

Due to the dissatisfaction of German capital and the German government, the navy had to lift commercial restrictions on Qingdao two years ago, which slightly improved the city's financial situation. However, German capital had already established a basic supply system in Wuhan and was unwilling to take the risk in Qingdao again.

German industrialists, led by Krupp, believed that Qingdao should be handed over to Wuhan for administration. This would allow the Chinese to establish infrastructure and supporting industries in the area, thereby greatly reducing the investment costs for German capital. After all, German rule in Qingdao could not interfere with the economic development of the countryside and the whole of Shandong, which meant that German industry was actually trading with a disordered agricultural society.

After dealing with Wuhan, German industrial capital could no longer tolerate inefficient trade with those former agricultural societies. Through Wuhan's reforms of the rural economy and political system, the rural areas under Wuhan's rule were not only able to provide a stable supply of raw materials for industry and agriculture, but also formed a continuously expanding consumer market.

This means that German industrial investment in the Wuhan area can be planned for the long term, rather than relying on luck and time. The growth in trade between China and Germany is an orderly increase, which is why German industrial and financial capital is continuously increasing its investment in China.

Meanwhile, German army generals, led by Moltke the Younger, were also using this incident to incite anti-British sentiment in Germany. The German people's fear of the British Empire made them consistently opposed to going to war with Britain and France. Although the German army and German nationalists tried to resolve the historical hatred between Germany and France through a war, most Germans remained rational and believed that Germany could not defeat the combined forces of Britain and France.

The prevailing view in Germany was that a war between Germany and France was inevitable, but a war between Germany and Britain was not necessary. The war between Germany and France should be a replica of the Franco-Prussian War, keeping Britain and Russia out of the picture while Germany and France fought one-on-one.

This sentiment among the German public greatly damaged the German army's war preparations. The German General Staff was meticulous in its war planning, and its operational plan for France had been in preparation since the Franco-Prussian War, undergoing countless revisions. The German General Staff believed that if the timing of the war became uncertain, the operational plan, which had been designed since the time of Moltke the Elder, would likely have to be completely scrapped.

The General Staff's assessment was that technological advancements were drastically altering the old combat system. In the Far East war, China and Japan, relying on military systems learned from Europe and imported weaponry, forced Tsarist Russia to admit defeat. This actually proves a military perspective: warfare is shifting from confrontations between standing armies to confrontations between the overall strength of nations.

A fully mobilized Germany could indeed defeat France, but when Britain and Russia also became Germany's adversaries, Germany was at a disadvantage in terms of national strength. Therefore, once Russia's national strength reached a certain level, Germany's confrontation with the three powers would inevitably fail, which meant that the decisive battle plan formulated during Moltke's era would become meaningless.

The General Staff was left with only two choices: implement the war plan devised by Moltke the Elder before it became ineffective, or abandon the plan and seek another path to victory. However, the latter option presented a major problem: what if Britain, France, and Russia went to war against Germany before Germany found a new path to victory?

Therefore, the newly appointed German Chief of the General Staff, Moltke the Younger, believed that even if Britain sided with France, as long as Germany could defeat France before Britain could mobilize its forces, Britain would lose its opportunity to intervene in the war. Moltke's view was supported by the upper echelons of the army. After all, the British Empire was a global empire, and it would take time for it to concentrate forces from all over the world in Europe. Germany had the opportunity to end the war within that timeframe.

The naval military exercises in the Far East became a tool for the German army to incite anti-British sentiment among its citizens. This led to a strange situation for both East and West: although Japan and China were the ones provoking Germany in the Far East, German public opinion generally pointed the finger at Britain. Under this sentiment, the German parliament did not, as it had during the Boxer Rebellion, propose radical measures to punish China; instead, it proposed renegotiating the status of Qingdao with the Chinese.

In other words, the German public, government, and military do not advocate escalating tensions with China over military exercises. Instead, they believe the Qingdao issue should be handled properly to ensure that Germany's largest trading partner in the Far East does not betray Germany.

Yamamoto Gonbei and Makino Shinken had been closely monitoring the Germans' movements. Although they supported the naval military exercise plan, they were not entirely sure about the Germans' reaction. If it really triggered a German threat of war against Japan, the situation would become uncontrollable.

Both Yamamoto and Makino understood that this was a gamble. If they won, they would be heroes; if they lost, they would have to take responsibility. They wouldn't have placed such a bet if the benefits of winning weren't so numerous. Of course, they couldn't stay in their current positions if they refused to bet; after all, this was the Navy's will, not their personal gamble.

However, events unfolded almost exactly as Lin Xinyi had predicted. The Germans indeed prioritized the European issue. Although the military exercise demonstrated Japan's hostility towards Germany, the Germans blamed the British, as the Anglo-Japanese Alliance still existed at that time.

However, Yamamoto Gonnohyōe knew in his heart that the Navy was no longer very interested in the Anglo-Japanese Alliance. Although the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other political forces still wanted to preserve the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, the Navy had actually planned to replace the Anglo-Japanese Alliance with an Asian alliance.

The British took the blame for the Japanese, which was a way of venting their anger at the British navy's almost complete inaction in the war against Russia. Once it was confirmed that the German government had no intention of further escalating the situation diplomatically, Yamamoto Gonnohyōe knew that the navy had won this gamble.

He quickly summoned Foreign Minister Makino to raise questions about the follow-up matters, wanting to know how the Ministry of Foreign Affairs would bring the matter to a close. Makino was not satisfied with Prime Minister Yamamoto's answer, as Makino was still waiting for contact between Germany and China, and Yamamoto had to remind Foreign Minister Makino.

"As Prime Minister, I do not wish to interfere with the work of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. However, I must remind you, Foreign Minister, that if you intend to wait for the results of the contact between Germany and China, then Japan will become very passive in this matter. We have essentially helped the Chinese solve a problem, but when the feast begins, we are not even allowed to sit at the table."

Nobuaki Makino knew that Prime Minister Yamamoto's view was correct. If they waited for the outcome of contact between Germany and China, Japan would lose its dominant position in this matter, which would be detrimental to Japan's role in establishing a new Asian order. However, Makino replied with a headache, "But we can't just contact Germany ourselves; that would make it seem like Japan is trying to encroach on Germany's interests in Shandong, which would be detrimental to Japan's diplomacy..."

Chapter 747

Author: Fuchun Mountain Residence Number: 4858 Comments: 0 Update Date: 2023-09-25 13:05:48

Yamamoto Gonbei was speechless at Makino's slowness. To be honest, he didn't really like the Okubo faction that Makino represented. Although he didn't want to represent the Saigo family, it was true that he held almost all of the Saigo family's inheritance. The Saigo faction was wary of the Okubo faction. Even though Yamamoto had his own political beliefs, he couldn't go against the will of these Saigo people.

Yamamoto was rather envious of Hayashi Nobuyoshi in this respect, because although Hayashi Nobuyoshi respected Saigo Takamori, he hardly relied on Saigo's faction. His current power in the navy was almost entirely due to his own political strategy, which integrated young officers and some marginal forces within the navy.

The Satsuma faction within the navy was quite friendly towards Hayashi Nobuyoshi because of Saigo Tsugumichi. However, Hayashi rejected the paved road Saigo Tsugumichi had laid out for him, choosing instead to forge his own path. Although this made his journey more difficult, and everyone only saw Hayashi's rapid rise in the navy after returning to Japan, Yamamoto knew that Hayashi's trip to China and India was fraught with peril, even riskier than participating in the Russo-Japanese War, since Hayashi did not have a complete organization providing him with support.

Given Lin Xinyi's capabilities demonstrated in the conflict with the British, almost no one doubted his meteoric rise in the war against Russia. After all, Lin Xinyi offered exceptionally insightful suggestions for both land and naval warfare against Russia. Therefore, if Lin Xinyi had simply followed the established path after graduation, he could have easily made a name for himself in the navy without having to take such a significant risk by fighting the British in Tibet and India.

Of course, Lin Xinyi's efforts also yielded great rewards. It was because of this trip to China and India that Lin Xinyi gained the recognition of the Chinese and Indian powers, thus completing the political foundation for his envisioned Asian alliance. It was also because Lin Xinyi was able to realize the Asian alliance that his proposed new naval strategy was able to gain the approval of the navy.

The reason why Yamamoto Gonnohyōe could not suppress Hayashi Nobuyoshi was that his power was not affected by the naval system. The navy needed Hayashi Nobuyoshi's plans to expand its domestic status and overseas influence. It was precisely because of this that he, as the Minister of the Navy, could not use his power to oppose the future of the navy.

The defeats of adversaries like Kawahara and Shibayama alone could not have shaken his authority as Minister of the Navy within the navy, especially since he had led the navy to victory in the Russo-Japanese War, earning him such high prestige that even the army had to show him respect. However, under Hayashi Nobuyoshi's consolidation efforts, these defeated figures within the navy forced him to relinquish his position as minister.

Therefore, Yamamoto Gonnohyōe always understood one thing: Hayashi Shin's actions were the key to the Navy's direction. However, Makino Nobuaki, whose diplomatic direction was being held hostage by the Navy, was unaware of this and wanted to wait for Germany and China to finish their negotiations before taking any action. Clearly, he had not truly learned his lesson.

Yamamoto Gonbei could only bluntly state: "What is Lin Xinyi doing? Hasn't the Ministry of Foreign Affairs paid any attention to this? If Lin Xinyi manages to coordinate with the Chinese and German sides before the Ministry of Foreign Affairs does, does the Ministry of Foreign Affairs intend to ratify the coordination results?"

Makino Nobuaki was stunned for a while before replying, "This seems to be against the rules. Lieutenant Colonel Hayashi was not authorized. How could he discuss diplomatic issues with the Chinese and German sides without authorization? The Ministry of Foreign Affairs will not approve of this result."

Prime Minister Yamamoto, familiar with Hayashi Nobuyoshi and the Navy's style, bluntly told Makino, "This matter is a diplomatic dispute arising from a military exercise. If the Navy, as a participant in the exercise, faces the pressure from Germany alongside China, it doesn't violate any rules. However, if the Ministry of Foreign Affairs wants to veto the coordination agreement reached between the Navy, China, and Germany, it's tantamount to negating the Navy-led Asian alliance plan, which is unacceptable to the Cabinet. If this situation arises, I will have no choice but to request a meeting of senior ministers to confirm the diplomatic approach. Will the Ministry of Foreign Affairs be able to provide a reasonable explanation then?"

Makino couldn't be tough anymore. He knew very well that the elders were dissatisfied with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' attempt to break free from their control. The independent diplomatic path advocated by the elite bureaucrats of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was based on the legal guarantee system of the constitution and international law. However, the elders believed that there were no fixed rules for diplomacy. The essence of diplomacy was to maintain the survival of the country. Therefore, if it was detrimental to the survival of the country, then neither the constitution nor international law could be ignored.

The pragmatism of the elder statesmen was naturally not accepted by the elite bureaucrats of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The reason for such a big difference between the two sides was that the era in which the elder statesmen lived and the environment in which these elite bureaucrats lived were completely different. The elder statesmen had struggled to survive on the brink of national collapse, so they naturally did not attach great importance to the law. On the other hand, the elite bureaucrats had grown up in peacetime. They naturally supported the order established by law and blindly believed that the relations between countries were constructed by international law. They believed that violating international law would exclude Japan from the international order.

This fundamental difference in understanding of diplomacy naturally led to mutual distrust between the elder statesmen and the elite bureaucrats of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. However, the elder statesmen's views could not be openly discussed, otherwise they would be questioned by the great powers and cause the people to lose a unified understanding of civilization. Therefore, the elder statesmen could only operate behind closed doors regarding diplomatic policy, which was well exploited by the elite bureaucrats of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. They used official documents and regulations to restrict the elder statesmen's actions on diplomatic issues.

Makino knew that once the Navy also stood against the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs would truly lose all control over the decision-making power of diplomatic policy. After all, the Navy's proposed new order in Asia had been recognized by the Imperial Conference and accepted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs bureaucrats. If the Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not propose a diplomatic policy to replace this one, blindly opposing it would only make the Imperial Household and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs think that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had no ability to conduct independent diplomacy. This was a responsibility that he could not bear.

After much deliberation, Makino finally said to Yamamoto Gonnohyōe, "I will send a telegram to Beijing now and have Minister Ijuin contact the Naval Exercise Command."

Yamamoto Gonbei shook his head and said, "I think it would be better for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to send someone directly to Lushun to keep an eye on Lin Xinyi. Can a telegram keep an eye on someone? I don't think so."

Makino Nobuhashi: "..."

Makino Nobuaki decided to heed Prime Minister Yamamoto's advice, since he was indeed less familiar with the navy than Yamamoto, the former Minister of the Navy. After returning to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Makino summoned his son-in-law and secretary, Yoshida Shigeru, and instructed him to quickly book a ship ticket to Dalian and report to the military exercise headquarters as a liaison officer of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, keeping an eye on Hayashi Shin'ichi's movements.

Yoshida Shigeru was quite proactive. After receiving Makino's instructions, he immediately used his personal connections to secure a berth on a cargo ship departing from Yokohama to Dalian the next day. After the Russo-Japanese War ended, shipping trade between Japan and Dalian became more frequent. Although Japan returned the Kwantung Leased Territory, which it had acquired from Russia, to China, it retained a large amount of Russian property, including the port of Dalian.

The Beiyang clique was not like Wuhan; they never intended to reclaim Kwantung Leased Territory. They were already quite satisfied with regaining control of the South Manchurian Railway. However, the Japanese government ultimately couldn't withstand the political pressure from Wuhan and had to return Kwantung Leased Territory to the Chinese government. During the handover, the Japanese forced the Beiyang clique to treat some important Russian assets as war reparations from Japan's intervention, transferring them to the Japanese.

Of course, these properties should have belonged to the Japanese government in name only, but in reality, the army quickly sold them to Japanese businessmen at extremely low prices and then handed the money over to the national treasury, thus completing the transfer of state property into private property. Some people in the army thus gained huge profits.

Just as Germany treated Qingdao as its homeland, the Russians developed the Kwantung Leased Territory. As a result, by 1908, Dalian had become an extremely important port for the entire Manchurian region, surpassing not only Dandong and Vladivostok, but also Yingkou in terms of cargo export growth rate.

Yingkou Port's natural conditions were more suitable for smaller ships, while Dalian Port was virtually unrestricted. Therefore, after Japan took control of Dalian Port, the number of ships at Dalian's docks far exceeded the number of wooden sailing ships, while wooden sailing ships still dominated Yingkou. Although Japan returned sovereignty of Kwantung Leased Territory to China, it also bridged the gap between Manchuria and Kwantung Leased Territory, leading to rapid commercial development in Dalian. Large quantities of Manchurian products began to be transported to Dalian for processing before being exported, resulting in a surge in trade between Japan and Manchuria.

Under such circumstances, it wasn't difficult for Shigeru Yoshida to find a ship to Dalian; the real challenge was getting a ticket. Due to the rapid growth of trade between the two countries, tickets couldn't be obtained without advance booking, as there were simply too many Japanese people eager to make their fortune in Dalian.

At first, Yoshida Shigeru thought the Japanese were going to Dalian to stay there, but after talking with fellow passengers on the ship, he realized that their destinations were actually Changchun and Harbin. According to these Japanese travelers, Dalian was better than Seoul, and northern Manchuria was better than southern Manchuria.

Why is Dalian stronger than Seoul? Because in Seoul, the profitable industries were monopolized by the army and relatives of high-ranking Japanese officials, leaving ordinary Japanese people with almost no chance to get rich quickly. In contrast, because Dalian was returned to China, the Japanese government's power there was not strong enough, which prevented the various Japanese conglomerates from creating monopolies and gave some small business owners a chance to rise to prominence.

However, for ordinary people, the best place to work is still the northern Manchuria region controlled by Wuhan. There are strict laws restricting the power of capital, and a large number of knowledgeable but capital-poor laborers are needed for construction. The northern Manchuria region is cautious about the entry of capital, but it is more lenient about the inflow of talent. As long as you have certain skills, you can find a suitable job and even get low-interest loans.

For Japanese people who have completed secondary education, North Manchuria, a place undergoing construction everywhere, naturally offers more opportunities than Japan or North Korea. In particular, Japanese graduates of science and engineering universities receive special care in North Manchuria. Many people have established their own small companies in less than a year in North Manchuria, which is unimaginable in Japan.

The conversations with these Japanese people on the ship made Shigeru Yoshida begin to worry. In the past, he didn't care much about Japanese people going abroad because he thought that those who went abroad were failures who couldn't make it in the country. He thought that these people went abroad to resolve social conflicts in the country. Those Japanese people who were willing to endure hardship and work hard didn't need to go abroad to take risks at all.

But the current situation made him somewhat anxious. The Japanese who were migrating to northern Manchuria were the backbone of Japanese society that he had previously thought of. If all these people ran away, wouldn't all that would be left in the country be a bunch of bastards?

With this anxiety, when he boarded the train from Dalian to Lushun, he wrote a letter to his father-in-law, arguing that the idea of ​​developing the navy's industry was correct, because only by developing industry could capable Japanese be kept in the country, and these people were the foundation of Japan. Those ronin and soldiers who only clamored to conquer the continent were just expendable resources for the country.

Yoshida Shigeru disembarked in Lushun, found a post office at the station to send a letter, and then hailed a carriage to the military exercise headquarters, which was formerly the Russian Far East Governor-General's Office. As he disembarked in front of the Governor-General's Office, now renamed the Naval Academy, Yoshida couldn't help but feel a pang of regret, for this should have been Japan's war booty, but due to the realities of international politics, Japan had no choice but to return it to China.

Initially, the Japanese Navy demanded the removal of all military facilities in Port Arthur to prevent it from becoming a military base opposed to Japan. However, the Navy soon changed its mind and not only agreed to allow the Chinese to retain all the military facilities in the port, but also helped the Chinese Navy establish a naval academy there.

This shift in the navy's strategy essentially meant changing its adversary from neighboring China and Russia to the UK, France, Germany, and the US, which dominate Southeast Asia. Shigeru Yoshida believed the navy's diplomatic approach wasn't entirely wrong. If they could truly bring China south, then maritime conflicts between Japan and China could be resolved. After all, neither Japan nor China could protect themselves against the maritime power of Western powers; cooperation was the only way out.

Looking at the luxurious Western-style buildings in the former Russian Governor's Mansion, Yoshida Shigeru, after his initial regret, returned to normal, walked towards the gatekeeper, explained his purpose, and after registering everything, a naval staff officer came out of the school and led him inside.

To Yoshida Shigeru's dismay, Hayashi Nobuyoshi was not there. He asked the naval staff officer in front of him, puzzled, "Why was Lieutenant Commander Hayashi Nobuyoshi invited to the anniversary celebration of the Workers', Peasants' and Soldiers' Committee in Wuhan? Why didn't our Ministry of Foreign Affairs know about this? Isn't this a foreign affairs activity?"

Inoue Tsunomatsu replied dismissively to the diplomat, "This is a private invitation extended by the Labor Party to Lieutenant Commander Hayashi. It has nothing to do with ordinary diplomatic activities. The Navy believes there is no need to report the personal activities of naval officers to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. When Komura facilitated the Anglo-Japanese Alliance in London, didn't he also notify the Navy?"

Yoshida Shigeru was also unable to answer this. In order to guard against the opposition of Ito Genryu, Foreign Minister Komura only reached a consensus with the army led by Yamagata in promoting the Anglo-Japanese Alliance. It was not until the Anglo-Japanese Alliance was close to success that the navy was invited to join the discussion. Although the Anglo-Japanese Alliance was what the navy desired, Foreign Minister Komura's actions did not make the navy feel very friendly.

However, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs could not treat the Army and Navy equally. After all, the Navy supported the Anglo-Japanese Alliance but opposed a war on the continent, while Foreign Minister Komura promoted the Anglo-Japanese Alliance with the intention of launching a war on the continent. Therefore, it was impossible to consult with the Navy first. Although Foreign Minister Komura's plan succeeded, the consequences were also obvious. After the Navy came to power, it ousted Foreign Minister Komura and began to promote a diplomatic approach dominated by the Navy.

Although the Navy and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs are currently cooperating, both sides are hiding certain things and are unwilling to let the other know. Yoshida Shigeru helplessly telegraphed Tokyo, and Makino's instructions to him were clear: go to Wuhan as soon as possible, find Lin Xinyi, and prevent Lin Xinyi from reaching a secret agreement with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Chinese and German sides before him.

Yoshida Shigeru knew that his father-in-law meant that the Navy should not be allowed to completely control the work of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was not the Navy's foreign affairs office. Fortunately, the railway from Lushun to Wuhan was now running smoothly, and he could quickly get to Wuhan by train, which saved him a lot of travel trouble.

This journey along the Chinese railway made Shigeru Yoshida deeply aware of the gap in the development of China's railways. Although the railway has been extended from Dalian to Wuhan, the journey is actually divided into three sections.

The journey from Dalian to Shenyang was similar to other domestic railways, and the Japanese held considerable influence on this line. However, the service was significantly worse from Shenyang to Tianjin to Baoding. Although the Beiyang government had regained control of the railways inside and outside the Great Wall, its management was not excellent. Yoshida Shigeru believed that the section south of Baoding offered service comparable to German railways, even though there were no German train conductors on this line.

Chapter 748

Shigeru Yoshida had taken this railway line before when he visited China, but he found that the railway line managed by Wuhan had the fastest improvement in equipment and service.

He had always thought that it would be a long time before China's railway service could catch up with Japan's, because Japanese railway staff did not at least consider themselves officials. However, on the Chinese railway lines, he found that these Chinese railway staff clearly distinguished themselves from ordinary railway workers and regarded ordinary passengers as citizens under their control during their travels.

The bureaucratic atmosphere along the railway line made him think that the Chinese were probably incapable of managing this modern mode of transportation. However, this time he realized he was wrong; the Chinese were indeed capable of providing excellent service. On his journey from Baoding to Wuhan, although he didn't receive the meticulous care of a first-class passenger while traveling in a soft sleeper carriage, the train attendants still provided satisfactory service.

Yoshida Shigeru consciously walked through the hard sleeper and hard seat carriages. The railway line managed by Wuhan changed the names of the first, second, and third class carriages, which indicated Wuhan's political stance: the principle of equality for all. You can pay to sit in a more comfortable carriage, but you cannot regard yourself as a superior being.

Yoshida Shigeru observed that the train attendants treated passengers in all three types of carriages the same way, only differing in the number of passengers they served. In the hard-seat carriages, passengers were largely responsible for their own needs, and the attendants focused more on handling emergencies than on serving passengers. It can be said that the train staff displayed considerable professionalism throughout the journey, a stark contrast to the disorderly state of third-class carriages on the Manchurian and other railways.

Unlike other diplomats who focus on high-level intelligence, Shigeru Yoshida actually prefers to focus on the living conditions of ordinary people. He believes that society is made up of people, and ordinary people make up the majority of a society. Therefore, observing the living conditions of ordinary people is more authentic than inquiring about high-level intelligence.

For example, by comparing the daily lives of people in Manchuria, North China, and the Central Plains, he concluded that Wuhan's growing strength was not due to military power, but rather to the increasing confidence and organization of its people. A simple observation of the mutual wariness among passengers in third-class carriages on railways in Manchuria and beyond, compared to the relaxed state of mind of passengers in hard-seat carriages, revealed that the people under Wuhan's rule felt safer and more trusting of each other than those under the Beiyang government.

The state of these interpersonal relationships will determine the strength a country can mobilize when facing a major war. A society that does not trust its government cannot mobilize all its resources to resist foreign enemies because it needs to use most of its resources to defend its own people. Japan was able to defeat the Qing Dynasty because the Manchus did not trust the Han people at all, and the Han people did not trust that the Manchu court could support them.

Therefore, this train journey made Shigeru Yoshida admit a fact: Wuhan has completely abandoned the traditional Chinese social governance methods of the past and adopted national consciousness to shape the mindset of its people, which is similar to Japan's policy of leaving Asia and joining Europe.

This led him to admit that the navy's assessment was correct: a large country with over 400 million people beginning to Europeanize, even if only a small part of it, was not something Japan could conquer. He even began to doubt the navy's ability to control future Asian alliances, because how could such a large country with a vast population and abundant resources possibly accept the protection of the Japanese navy once it became Europeanized?

With these questions in mind, Shigeru Yoshida disembarked at Dazhimen Railway Station. Compared to a year ago, Wuhan had become even more prosperous. The flags and flowers adorning the streets for the upcoming celebrations made the city even more breathtaking. Yoshida believed that, in terms of its current urban landscape, Wuhan had indeed surpassed the Shanghai concession area to become the most modern city in the Far East.

When Shigeru Yoshida arrived in Wuhan to try to contact Shin-yi Lin, the naval lieutenant commander was at the German consulate exchanging views with German colonial minister Bernhard Dernburg.

The celebration ceremony held in Wuhan was also a grand investment promotion conference. Important figures from the German business community were invited to visit and conduct in-depth exchanges on Sino-German trade and investment.

In the past, the major German industrial and commercial giants that invested in Wuhan were mainly the Krupp family and the Siemens family. These two families have achieved tremendous growth in the Far East in the past few years. The Krupp family's investment in China increased from less than one million marks to 5500 million marks in five years, and Siemens' investment growth rate was about the same.

German industry and bankers found themselves in a stark contrast to Krupp and Siemens, who were struggling with insufficient production capacity while they were still figuring out how to sell their products.

These German industrialists and bankers, through collecting data from Krupp and Siemens, discovered that the Chinese market's demand was far from ceasing its high growth; on the contrary, continuous investment in industry further increased their demand.

For example, Wuhan's pursuit of industrialization revitalized German investment in Shandong's coal and iron ore industries. Germany was attracted to Shandong because of its abundant coal and iron ore resources. However, after Germany began developing the mountains, the Germans realized that Shandong's resources were not actually of much help to Germany.

Shandong's coal is not suitable for use as marine fuel; it is more suitable for power generation and metallurgy. Although Shandong has abundant iron ore, its grade is not very good. It is not cost-effective to transport Shandong's coal and iron resources back to China. Building a steel plant in Shandong would require huge investment, and there is simply no such large demand for steel in Asia. Before the establishment of the Wuhan regime, the Hanyang Ironworks of the Qing Dynasty had already experienced unsold products.

Therefore, although the navy wanted to develop Shandong into a naval base in the Far East and establish an industrial system including steel and shipbuilding, the parliament refused to allocate funds, and capitalists believed that it was unprofitable. As a result, the German navy's plan was effectively stillborn.

However, after the establishment of the Wuhan regime, Shandong's coal and iron resources, which had been considered a liability by the Germans, finally gained a new market. However, German industrialists and bankers did not intend to turn Shandong into an overseas military base for Germany in the same way as the navy, but believed that they should cooperate with the Chinese to develop Shandong's coal and iron resources.

The stance of German industrial and commercial giants was quite clear: the navy could not protect Germany's interests in the Far East at all. Their colonial-style operations in Shandong risked having their property confiscated by the Chinese government. The Russians were too greedy, and as a result, all their infrastructure in Manchuria and the Primorsky Krai was divided up by China and Japan.

Are German capitalists out of their minds? Seeing the fate of the Russians, they still want to stomp on them again. In particular, Krupp personally helped Wuhan establish its military industry system. He was well aware of the speed of Wuhan's military development. He privately commented to his friends, "Although we regard Russia as a future enemy, I dare say that it is fortunate that Russia stood between China and Germany, otherwise we would have really encountered trouble."

Krupp believed that the Chinese were more capable of fighting than the Russians. Although the grey cattle could endlessly overwhelm their enemies under the command of Tsarist officers, Tsarist Russia had little advantage in human resources compared to China, which had a larger population. In terms of public perception of war, the Chinese were the only nation willing to sacrifice their lives for morality.

Krupp explained, "Although we in Europe can use nationalism and statism to call on the people to support the war, the ultimate goal of nationalism and statism is to gain more living space for our own nation or people. Without such incentives, ordinary people cannot be inspired to have a sense of honor."

However, before the Chinese understood nationalism and statism, they had launched countless peasant uprisings against tyrannical rule, the most recent being the Boxer Rebellion. Therefore, the Chinese are actually more warlike than any other nation, only this desire has been firmly restrained by their rulers' Confucian ethics and moral code.

For the Chinese, unification is a moral obligation of the rulers; a ruler who cannot achieve unification cannot be considered a legitimate ruler of China. Therefore, attempting to seize control of Shandong is not impossible, but we cannot expect the Chinese to abide by this agreement. No matter how much we invest in Shandong, once the new Chinese regime is established, the recapture of Shandong will be inevitable.

The Chinese are capable of waging a full-scale war against us for Shandong, while Germany is unlikely to relinquish its homeland's security for Shandong. Therefore, we are destined to lose this conflict. Rather than a mutually destructive outcome, it is better to pursue only economic interests in China, rather than attempting to occupy Chinese territory.

Ten years ago, even Krupp himself wouldn't have been able to convince himself of this, given Germany's ambitious search for new lands under the sun. However, after events like the Moroccan crisis and the deterioration of Anglo-German relations, German capital lost its confidence in peacefully expanding into overseas markets—specifically, peace with Britain.

Britain's ongoing diplomatic and economic restrictions on Germany have made German capital realize how vulnerable its overseas investments are. If Britain and Germany were to go to war, then apart from the Mediterranean region near German territory, almost all overseas investments in the Americas and Asia would be under the threat of the British Royal Navy.

At such a time, German capital was naturally not concerned with expansion but rather with the security of its overseas investments. Even those German investors who advocated for Anglo-German friendship had little confidence in the integrity of the British. Under these circumstances, a re-evaluation of Chinese national character became a trend in German public opinion.

This reassessment was not actually a German invention. Before the British chose Japan as the gatekeeper of the Far East, they had a very apt term for their contempt for the Japanese people—"the sick man of East Asia." But after the British chose Japan as the gatekeeper of the Far East, British newspapers began to reassess the Japanese. Even when Japan sank British merchant ships in the First Sino-Japanese War, the British covered up and defended the Japanese navy.

Now, German capital needed an ally in the East should war break out in Europe, making the denigration of the Chinese less appropriate. Therefore, German public opinion re-evaluated the Chinese, attempting to prove that the Chinese, as an ancient people, were capable of being an Eastern ally of the Germanic people.

Bernhard Dernburg was a Jewish banker who co-founded the Deutsche-Luxembourg Mining and Smelting Company with coal magnate Hugo Stines in 1901. He was able to serve as Colonial Minister because in 06 the Reichstag refused to allocate funds to Germany’s overseas colonies, which forced the Navy to request Wilhelm II to dissolve the Reichstag. After that, capitalists who supported the Navy obtained the position.

The Wuhan celebrations of 1909 were in fact a secret gathering in which Wuhan and German capital prepared for further cooperation. Heavy industrial giants such as Thyssen, Krupp's competitors, and German shipping companies all intended to join the Chinese business and seek to transfer their overseas assets to third parties to avoid the Allied powers imposing enemy-state clauses on these assets after the outbreak of war in Europe.

German capital was well aware that relying solely on Wuhan's resources would likely be insufficient to protect its investments in Asia. However, partnering with Japan would change things. Yet, neither the German nor Japanese navy possessed significant influence. While the Germans and Japanese navies jointly developed the dreadnought class, the Germans looked down on Japan's industrial capabilities. Although it predated the British, all nations ultimately referred to this new capital ship as the Dreadnought-class.

While Germany exported considerable military systems and equipment to the East, its arrogance towards people of color prevented it from establishing truly influential officer corps in almost all of these countries. The Ottoman Empire was an exception. If the Ottomans hadn't needed German assistance to fight the Russians, and if Germany hadn't needed to build the Triple B Railway through Ottoman territory, Germany wouldn't have invested so much effort in the Ottoman Empire.

Therefore, when German capital sought protection from Japan, it discovered that it seemed unable to establish a close relationship with the Japanese navy; their only connection to the Japanese army and navy was commercial. Thus, using China to cultivate relations with Japan became the only viable option for German capital. Only with the combined backing of China and Japan did German capital feel secure about its investments in the East.

Bernhard Dernburg initially felt that Lin Xinyi, as a naval lieutenant colonel, was not qualified to discuss such matters with him without authorization from the Japanese government. However, after receiving assurances from Wuhan, he reluctantly agreed to the tripartite negotiations, since the authorization telegram from Berlin had not yet reached him and Wilhelm II was still being persuaded.

Bernhard Dernburg did not want the German Pacific colonies to become independent as a new country. He advocated that they join the Asian Union as German colonies, which was also the idea of ​​German naval commander Tirpitz.

However, this idea was flatly rejected by Lin Xinyi, who bluntly told Bernhard: "If the German Pacific colonies join the alliance, it means that the German East Asia Fleet will still be an overseas squadron under the German Navy. Once war breaks out in Europe, the alliance may be drawn into the war. Japan and Britain have an alliance clause, which will put Japan in a dilemma between the two treaties."

Japan and China seek to establish an Asian alliance to safeguard peace in Asia and protect legitimate investments in the region, not to ensure a German victory. Mr. Bernhard, you have contributed little, yet you expect Japan and China to stake everything on Germany—this is unrealistic.

Even if Germany wins this war, Japan and China will benefit little, because they cannot destroy the Royal Navy. A so-called victory would only grant them hegemony in Central Europe, but the seas would remain British domain. In other words, after the war in Europe, Britain would be free to deal with its problems in Asia. So, would its High Seas Fleet be willing to land on British soil for the sake of Japan and China?

Bernhard could not make such a promise, because Germany had no plans to land on the British mainland. The army and navy's war objective was to isolate Britain from the European continent, not to occupy the British Isles. Everyone knew that the British Isles were not the foundation of the British Empire; in fact, the vast overseas colonial territories were the foundation. As long as those overseas colonies remained subservient to the British monarch, Britain could continuously launch counterattacks until it drove the Germans back to sea.

Given the current situation in Europe, Germany had not even considered invading the British mainland, so it was even less likely that it would launch an attack on the British mainland for the sake of Japan and China. Bernhard was unwilling to even deceive the other side, because he knew that such a lie would not only fail to fool them, but would also cause Japan and China to lose trust in Germany.

Regardless of Bernhard's rhetoric and attempts to use German capital to win over the Chinese and sow discord between China and Japan, the resolute stance of both Japan and China against being drawn into the European war rendered all of Bernhard's schemes ineffective. When Wilhelm II telegraphed him at the end of October, requesting Bernhard to negotiate with the Chinese and understand their views on the Qingdao issue, he knew his time was running out, because German capital needed this Asian alliance more than Japan and China.